Archived Story

Better music would increase sales
By JOE NICKELL of the Missoulian

Survey suggests lousy music, not online sharing, the cause of declining sales

Over the past couple years, the Recording Industry Association of America has undertaken an expensive, all-out media campaign aimed at vilifying online music swappers, echoing the D.A.R.E. anti-drug campaign of years past. Where once Nancy Reagan admonished kids to Just Say No, and Ed Mease sent casual pot smokers to prison, today the RIAA is filing lawsuits against 12-year olds and grandmothers for downloading a few songs off the Internet, while sending ominous instant messages to file-sharing users around the world that "You Are Not Anonymous."

But a new study indicates that, just as the D.A.R.E. scare-tactics failed to halt illegal drug use, the RIAA may be barking up the wrong tree in its own campaign.

The study, called the Fitehouse Discouraged Listener Index, found that a majority of adults feel that today's new-music releases are generally so lousy that there's little reason to seek out new artists at the record store. Fifty-five percent of respondents agreed with the statement that "the current offerings of new music are so poor that I am discouraged from even going to the record store or looking for new acts."

Furthermore, 56.1 percent of respondents said that when they do purchase music, they mostly buy records made by artists who have been around for at least ten years.

"The overriding message of the survey seems to be that we need more - more variety, more quality," says Josh Cohen, author of the study. "Music is more important than a lot of people take it to be. It's part of our identity, part of culture and how we understand things. With the recent consolidation of radio and television station and record label ownership, it's very difficult for people to find new stuff that fits their particular interests."

It's important to note that the survey can't be seen as statistically representative of American attitudes as a whole. For one thing, it only included 206 respondents, all of them from the Baltimore area. For another, it wasn't a random sample: respondents were approached in person at a handful of bars and outdoor festivals.

And the group that conducted the survey isn't exactly a well-known research firm. In fact, Fitehouse is a rock band from Maryland. Indeed, the survey itself - which has been widely circulated to newspapers and magazines around the country - might be seen as little more than a brilliantly disguised media campaign for the band, which hasn't exactly won over many fans by traditional means.

But a close review of the survey indicates that somebody in the band took his college stats course very seriously.

That person is Josh Cohen, the band's guitarist. Cohen actually came to the study with some impressive past credentials: He's the former director of economic research at the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico.

"Ever since I worked there, I always have this knee-jerk reaction whenever I want to know something," says Cohen. "I think to myself, 'hmmm, I should do a survey'Š

"It's been so frustrating to watch the debate in the media about that's happening to the music industry, and everything you read is based on the one-sided argument put forth by the record industry," continues Cohen. "They're pointing to the drop in sales and the rise in file sharing and saying there's a direct correlation; but people I talk to have been saying something else."

The study suggests that the people swapping music online aren't necessarily trying to get something for nothing. Maybe, instead, they're simply looking for something - anything - that's actually worth buying.

That theory has a supporting argument in a parallel industry. Over the past couple years, Hollywood has seen a remarkable shift in how quickly box office flops are separated from sleepers.

For example, one of the biggest debuts of this year, "The Hulk," saw its box office revenues drop by an astonishing 70 percent from opening weekend to the following week.

Many analysts have pointed to the speed and volume of word-of-mouth discussions online - not to mention unauthorized, digital copies of films that usually appear on online IRC networks well ahead of the official box-office release - as the cause for this trend.

"The Net has a very big effect on the success of a movie," said Clint Morris, operator of the Australian film review site Moviehole.net, in a recent interview with the Sydney Sun Herald. "If you took a journey through all of those sites and read about 'Hulk' for six months, by the time it comes along you're either excited or not excited. I wasn't - and that's due to all the reviews I've read."

Perhaps the precipitous drop in record sales over the past few years reflects the fact that the Internet has simply made it easier for listeners to finally exercise some informed discrimination in their purchases. Instead of guessing about the quality of an album based on a single song heard on the radio, today's listeners can hear the entire thing and read thousands of reviews before committing to a purchase.

Gone may be the days when a single hit can ensure millions in sales for an otherwise lousy record - not because people are stealing copies of the record; but because people are wising up.

But of course, the RIAA would probably rather we continue thinking of online music swappers as marauding pirates, rather than treasure seekers who, thanks to the Internet, finally have a decent map to go by. The RIAA did not return requests for an interview by press time.

Ultimately, even if Cohen's survey is dismissed by the industry, he feels glad for one thing.

"I'm mostly just satisfied to know that I wasn't going insane when I was thinking these things myself," says Cohen.

Reach Joe Nickell at 523-5358 or at jnickell@missoulian.com.


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