Bush tops Kerry by a 54 to 36 percent margin, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2 percent. Eight percent of Montana voters are undecided.
The poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., a Washington, D.C., firm, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Pollsters interviewed 625 registered Montana voters who said they plan to vote in the Nov. 2 election.
"Obviously, Montana's a state that Democrats aren't going to target in the presidential race," said Brad Coker, president of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. "Other than the (national) network ads, I'd be real surprised to see any Kerry ads running in Montana."
Bush won Montana in 2000, polling 58 percent of the votes to Democrat Al Gore's 33 percent. Nader, running on the Green Party ticket, had 6 percent, while 2 percent of the vote went to other minor party candidates.
Montana voters also had more favorable reactions to Bush than Kerry by a large margin.
Fifty-four percent said they have a favorable opinion of Bush, while 34 percent have a negative opinion and 12 percent are neutral.
More Montana voters have a negative opinion of Kerry. Forty-six percent have a negative opinion of the senator, while 32 percent have a positive reaction, with 21 percent neutral. One percent don't recognize Kerry's name.
At the same time, Montana voters give Bush mixed grades on his handling of the situation in Iraq and his dealing with economy, although more approve than disapprove in both categories.
On the Iraq question, 49 percent said they approved of Bush's handling of the situation, while 41 percent disapproved, with 10 percent undecided.
Men approved of Bush's handling of Iraq by a 54 to 38 percent margin, with 8 percent undecided. Women, however, were evenly divided on the question, with 44 percent supporting Bush's handling of the Iraq situation and 44 percent opposing it, with 12 percent undecided.
The September numbers closely mirror those in a similar Lee poll in May when 48 percent approved of Bush's handling of the Iraq situation and 41 percent disapproved, with 11 percent undecided.
Bush picked up slightly more support for his handling of the economy. The September poll found that 51 percent of Montana voters approved of his dealing with the economy, while 40 percent disapproved, with 9 percent undecided.
By gender, 57 percent of the men approved of Bush's handling of the economy, while 37 percent disapproved, with 6 percent undecided. The margin narrowed considerably among women, with 45 percent approving Bush's handling of the economy and 43 percent opposed, with 12 percent undecided.
In May, the Lee poll found 47 percent of Montana voters approved of the way Bush was handling the economy, while 42 percent disapproved, with 11 percent undecided.
Those polled were also asked which single issue would be the most influential in their voting decision in the national races for president and the U.S. House. They were given eight choices that have been used by Mason-Dixon in polls in other states.
Topping the list at 23 percent was the situation in Iraq, followed by homeland security and the war on terror at 20 percent. Eighteen percent said the economy and unemployment, while 11 percent said moral issues and family values and 9 percent said health care.
Six percent said Social Security and Medicare, while 5 percent said education and 3 percent listed the environment. Five percent weren't sure.
Here are some additional breakdowns of the Bush-Kerry face-off in Montana in the poll, by gender, region and age.
By gender, Bush is running stronger with men than with women, the poll showed.
The poll found that 59 percent of men supported Bush, while 33 percent backed Kerry. Nader had 1 percent of the votes from men, while 7 percent of male voters were undecided.
Among women voters, Bush still led but by a smaller amount. Forty-nine percent of women voters backed Bush, while 39 percent favored Kerry, with Nader getting 3 percent. Nine percent of women were undecided.
By region, Bush was strongest in the 15-county region east and north of Yellowstone County, leading Kerry by a 64 to 24 percent margin, with 13 percent undecided. The numbers may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding off.
Kerry ran the best among voters in the 10-county area that includes Butte, Helena and Bozeman, but still trailed the Republican president. Bush held a 51 to 42 percent lead, with 2 percent favoring Nader and 5 percent undecided.
In the 11-county region that includes Billings, Bush leads 51 to 38 percent, with 7 percent undecided and 2 percent for Nader.
Bush also dominates the 12-county northcentral Montana region that takes in Great Falls. He holds a 50 to 38 percent margin over Kerry, with 10 percent undecided and 2 percent for Nader.
In the eight-county area that takes in Missoula and Kalispell, Bush is ahead by a 56 to 32 percent margin, with 8 percent undecided and Nader at 3 percent.
Among age groups, Bush does best against Kerry among Montana voters from ages 35 to 49, leading by a 56 to 32 percent margin, with 10 percent undecided and Nader at 2 percent.
The next-best age group for Bush is Montana voters from ages 18 to 34. He has a 55 to 33 percent lead over Kerry, with 9 percent undecided and Nader at 3 percent.
Kerry fares best - but still trails Bush - with Montana voters who are 65 and older. Bush leads Kerry by a 52 to 42 percent margin among this group, with 5 percent undecided and 1 percent for Nader.
Among voters age 49 to 64, Bush is ahead of Kerry by a 52 to 38 percent margin, with 7 percent undecided and Nader at 3 percent.
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