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Lee poll: Bush has big lead in Montana
By CHARLES S. JOHNSON Missoulian State Bureau

HELENA - President Bush still holds a commanding lead over Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry in Montana, a new Lee Newspapers poll taken this week shows.

The poll showed the Republican president leading Kerry by a 57 percent to 36 percent margin, with 6 percent undecided and independent Ralph Nader getting 1 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., conducted the telephone poll from Monday through Wednesday, interviewing 625 registered Montana voters who said they are likely to vote Nov. 2.

Those interviewed were picked by random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers, with a cross section of exchanges to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to match voter turnout percentages by county.

The Lee poll broke down the results by gender, age and region.

In the October poll, men supported Bush by more than women did. Men backed Bush over Kerry, 64 percent to 32 percent, while women favored Bush, 50 percent to 40 percent.

By age groups, younger voters from ages 18 to 34 are the strongest backers of Bush, favoring him 61 percent to 34 percent. Bush's support is weakest among those who are at least 65 years old, but he still leads Kerry 51 percent to 41 percent.

By region, Bush ran strongest among voters in the eastern Montana counties, 65 percent to 29 percent, followed by the area that includes Billings, which backed him 62 percent to 30 percent.

In the area that includes counties around Great Falls, Bush leads 55 percent to 39 percent. In the Butte, Bozeman, Helena area, Bush is ahead, 51 percent to 41 percent. In the area that takes in Missoula and Kalispell, Bush holds a 57 percent to 36 percent lead.

Those polled were asked if they had a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of each candidate.

Fifty-five percent had a positive reaction to Bush, while 34 percent had an unfavorable reaction and 11 percent were neutral. Kerry, on the other hand, received unfavorable ratings from 48 percent of Montana voters, while 33 percent gave him favorable marks and 19 percent were neutral.

Those polled also asked whether voters approved or disapproved Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq and his handling of the economy.

The poll showed 50 percent supported Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq, while 40 percent disapproved and 10 percent were undecided.

Voters split by gender. Women opposed Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq, 46 percent to 45 percent, while men supported it by 55 percent to 34 percent.

As for the economy, Montana voters approved of the president's policies by a 51 percent to 41 percent margin. Men lined up behind Bush's handling the economy, 56 percent to 37 percent, while women supported it him by a 46 percent to 45 percent margin.


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