That's the view of former ambassador to South Korea Donald Gregg, who was scheduled to speak at the University of Montana on Thursday evening. While North Korea likely does have nuclear bombs, the most they could be used for is self-defense, Gregg said in an interview. On the other hand, neighboring Russia and China have a great deal to gain from normalized relations with North Korea and get little benefit from supporting the U.S. standoff. The only thing preserving that standoff, Gregg said, was U.S. pressure on those countries to keep diplomatic channels blocked.
Gregg's own interest in the Korean Peninsula started when he was a CIA officer training Korean farmers to become commandos during the Korean War. He served as chief of station for the CIA in South Korea from 1973 to 1975, and returned as ambassador from 1989 to 1993. He is now president of the Korea Society, a nonprofit agency arranging business and cultural contacts between the United States and the Koreas.
"They were saying, 'We've watched you go to war (in Iraq) on the basis of erroneous intelligence of weapons of mass destruction - we're concerned you might do the same with us,' " Gregg said. "They're wondering, 'How can we talk to the Americans when they think we're devils?' "
The root of the problem appears to be Bush's personal dislike of North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Il, Gregg said. Ironically, he cited the opinions of former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and South Korean officials who believe Kim Jong Il is more favorably inclined toward the United States than many others in his government.
"The stone in the road is President Bush's ad hominem animosity against Kim Jong Il," Gregg said. "I think he's hoping that pressure will bring about regime change. And it may well, and we may get someone much worse for our interests."
Meanwhile, the South Koreans see big benefits in reunification, or at least normalized relations throughout the peninsula. They could reunite families separated since the Korean War in 1950, and get access to North Korea's well-trained and inexpensive labor force.
The Chinese have much to gain by spreading their influence along the Asian coast of the Pacific as well. South Korea already trades more with China than the United States, Gregg said. And the Russians see better ports and transportation systems to get their eastern natural resources to better markets. The major Russian city of Vladivostok sits near North Korea's northeastern border.
Against these economic and cultural interests stand the influence of the United States and Japan. But the Japanese have essentially rejected North Korean advances, such as Kim Jong Il's admission of his father's government kidnapping 13 Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s. Gregg said North Koreans were considering a similar gesture toward the United States in 2002 by returning the USS Pueblo, an American warship taken in 1968. That died shortly after U.S. officials accused North Korea of resuming a canceled nuclear weapons program.
"Bush has created a face problem for himself," Gregg said. "It's mystifying why Bush people don't take care of an issue that's much easier to deal with than, for example, the Middle East."
Reporter Rob Chaney can be reached at 523-5382 or at rchaney@missoulian.com
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