That's because the winner in that three-way campaign likely will be enlisted to help hammer out a solution to a decades-long international dispute over how best to manage wildlands immediately north of Glacier National Park.
For years, there has been talk from the north about developing energy reserves in the Canadian Flathead, a wild river drainage that flows south across the border to form the western edge of Glacier Park before spilling into Flathead Lake.
“The critters and the water don't recognize the international border, and many of the decisions that affect them are determined by elections,” said Steve Thompson, Glacier program manager for the National Parks Conservation Association in Whitefish. “So we're always very interested in how Canadian elections unfold. It's usually the case that some political leaders are more interested in cooperating across borders than others.”
Most recently, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer has been working with his counterpart in British Columbia to craft a long-term, binational plan for the region's future.
Some think that future should include an expansion of Waterton Lakes National Park, which shares part of its border with Glacier Park. Proponents say an expansion of Waterton to the west - into the Canadian Flathead - would not only help resolve contentious land-use issues but also would put money in locals' pockets.
The expansion, as proposed, would cover about one-third of the Canadian Flathead, east of the river in an area where no oil or gas wells are currently planned.
On Jan. 5, the Vancouver Sun newspaper reported on a study revealing the economic value of additional park lands “easily exceeds any economic loss from ending logging and trophy hunting in the area.”
The analysis was completed by Jim Johnson, a former manager in British Columbia's Ministry of Finance. Johnson calculated that, once income and jobs lost to resource extraction industries were subtracted out, the region would see a boost of $1.44 million and two dozen full-time jobs associated with the new wilderness park attraction.
“The economic benefits associated with the park expansion far outweigh the economic costs,” he reported.
“Thus,” he concluded, “from a regional economic perspective, the park expansion is a win-win solution resulting in increased economic activity ... and increased wildlife habitat protection.”
But not everyone agrees.
A week after Johnson's findings were reported in the Sun, columnist Don Whiteley wrote that the current campaign season was likely to bring this “smoldering issue to the surface.”
“The proposed addition to Waterton seems to have split the community,” he said, adding that “Conservative MP Jim Abbott, currently running for re-election, is unalterably opposed to the idea” of park expansion.
Liberal opponent Jhim Burwell, however, favors the new park; and while Brent Bush of the New Democratic Party has not staked out a position, he is likely to be warmer to the idea than incumbent Abbott.
Nationwide polls in the run-up to the election indicate that the Conservatives are poised to wrest the reins of the federal government from the Liberal Party, which has ruled for 13 years.
“A Conservative federal government doesn't guarantee the end of the park proposal,” Whiteley said, “but it would take plenty of the wind out of the sails of the groups who are promoting the concept.”
If Abbott holds his seat as member of Parliament for the region, Whiteley said, “he'll be doing his damnedest to kill it.”
Abbott himself has been quoted as saying it was time to “put this idea on the shelf, or in whatever suitable repository is available.”
The current Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Paul Martin, has endorsed the park expansion and has proposed a feasibility study to evaluate the costs and benefits. The provincial government in Victoria, however, has blocked the feasibility study, and the proposal has languished. A new Conservative federal government could quash the idea before a cost-benefit analysis is ever conducted.
Between now and the Jan. 23 election, Whiteley said, the federal candidates “could well find this issue back on the front burner.”
Which is one reason some in Montana are following Canadian politics so closely these days. The winner of the three-way race will have considerable sway regarding the future of the Canadian Flathead at a time when coal, gold and coalbed methane companies are actively eyeing the area.
“We've seen a recurring cycle of mining and drilling schemes over the past 30 years, and we're in another one of those periods now,” Thompson said. “There's strong interest on our side of the border to nail down a long-term plan to keep the North Fork (Flathead River) pretty much the way it is, which is wild and free.
“This is a challenging task,” Thompson acknowledged, “because it requires cooperation of the state, the province, both federal governments and local tribes. But every time we get close, it seems that political shifts in Canada send us back to square one.”
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