The NCAA basketball pairings come out this afternoon. By Monday, millions of Americans will be out of their depth in office pools, clutching photocopied brackets and muttering “Monmouth.”
Many will ask themselves, seriously, who plays better close-out defense: UNC-Wilmington or South Alabama? At least half will look at Montana, scratch their heads and wonder how long Canadian teams have been allowed to play in the tournament.
The theory is that water-cooler talk, long lunches, Internet downloads, telephone gossip and TV breaks divert the proletariat from their duty, and if folks spend as little as 10 minutes each work day rooting for the Wreakin' Havocs - instead of dozing through meetings - we're in trouble.
Frankly, those figures sound conservative. I waste 10 minutes every day just clicking through “Hot Amish Babes” on Netscape. The NCAA tournament? We're not talking 10 minutes, we're talking 10 hours.
I can't rescue the economy, but I can save your bracket. But remember, this advice is for entertainment purposes only. NCAA office pools are (wink-wink) illegal.
1) Never play cards with a guy nicknamed “Doc.” Never eat at a place called “Mom's.” And never, ever, pick a No. 16 seed. They're 0-84 against the No. 1s.
2) Since the Montana Grizzlies will probably be a 14 or 15 seed, feel free to go with your heart, not your head. True, they've won just once in six previous NCAA appearances. But the Griz rank fourth in the nation in assists, fifth in field-goal accuracy and play a physical style that could spring an upset.
3) Think backwards. Instead of starting with the first round and working your way through the bracket, start at the end. Pick your champion, then your Final Four, then your Sweet 16. Then tear up your bracket and get a life.
4) Pssst: Looking for a sleeper? Try Winthrop. And another psssst: Go deep with Gonzaga at your peril. Despite media darling Adam Morrison, these no-defense Zags are closer to Prunella than Cinderella.
5) Pick a team from a power conference to make the Final Four that you otherwise wouldn't. It's known as the “Lute Rule” in honor of the 1997 Arizona Wildcats, who won the national title after finishing fifth in the Pac-10. This year, you might consider going all the way with UCLA.
6) The usual rule of thumb is to take three of the four No. 1 seeds at least as far as the Elite Eight, although that could be risky this time, given the lack of super-duper teams. Two No. 1 seeds made it that far last year, and eventually squared off for the title, with North Carolina defeating Illinois.
7) Which brings us to this point: A No. 1 seed has hoisted the national championship trophy 10 of the past 13 years.
8) Avoid coaches with beards. Only one, P.J. Carlesimo of Seton Hall, has ever taken a team to the Final Four. The same goes for players nicknamed “Cornbread.” Only Cedric Maxwell overcame that handicap.
9) Pick a few No. 12 seeds to make it to the weekend. In 2002, they went 3-1 against No. 5s in the first round, and 2-2 in 2004. Last year, Wisconsin-Milwaukee made the Sweet 16 as a 12th seed.
10) If all else fails, go with the meaner looking mascot. Wildcats beat Ducks, Tigers beat Quakers. Avoid weather systems. The same goes for trees, unless a dude named Bird is playing for the Sycamores.
Follow these trusty rules, and you'll still lose. But maybe you won't feel like such a chump.
For my money, it doesn't make sense to wreck America's economy by going chalk, so - as always - I'm picking upsets up the ying-yang. Out of pure patriotism, I'll be in a corner somewhere, groveling on my knees, rooting for George Washington to chop down everybody.
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