“By any measure, Conrad Burns is in deep trouble in his efforts to win re-election,” Whit Ayres, president of the Alexandria, Va., polling company Ayres McHenry & Associates, said in a memo Monday.
Only 29 percent of Montana voters believe Burns deserves to be re-elected, with 60 percent thinking it's time to give someone else a chance and 11 percent undecided, the poll found. Thirty-two percent of Republicans and 66 percent of independents favored giving someone else a shot at the job.
However, the poll showed Burns has mounted a wide 62 percent to 15 percent lead over Keenan in the June 6 Republican primary, with 19 percent undecided and two others dividing 4 percent. Keenan jumped into the Senate shortly before the filing deadline. The margin of error for the GOP primary is plus or minus 6.98 percentage points.
Keenan, the state Senate minority leader from Bigfork, said he spent nearly $20,000 of the $50,000 he's raised so far on the poll to find out “whether I was a legitimate primary contender or whether I needed to be home mowing the law or coaching Little League baseball.”
Republican legislative candidates and likely GOP voters have told him for months that Burns has an “electability problem” because of his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, Keenan said.
“I think that this survey confirms this perception,” Keenan said.
In response, Burns campaign spokesman Jason Klindt said: “Bob Keenan got what he paid for - a poll that shows him in the best possible light. Different polls show different results, but the only one that matters is taken on Election Day.
“The bottom line is Conrad Burns is going to win the primary, and the real general election campaign starts on June 7.”
The telephone poll of 600 Montana voters taken April 25-27 showed Democrat John Morrison topping Burns, 50 percent to 40 percent, with 11 percent undecided. (Numbers may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.) It found Democrat Jon Tester slightly ahead of Burns, 48 percent to 42 percent.
The full poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
If the general election were held now, Morrison would lead Keenan, 43 percent to 33 percent, with 24 percent undecided. There was no Keenan-Tester matchup.
Without naming the candidates but describing their backgrounds in what the pollster called objective terms, Morrison topped Burns 50 percent to 37 percent, and Keenan had a 45 percent to 43 percent margin over Morrison, although it fell within the poll's margin of error. Tester was not included.
Pollster Ayres said voters “have made up their minds about Burns and Keenan has far more potential to grow on the ballot test.”
A Democratic primary matchup shows Morrison leading Tester 35 to 28 percent, with 31 percent undecided. Trailing are Robert Candee of Richey with 3 percent, Paul Richards of Boulder with 2 percent and Kenneth Marcure of Missoula with 1 percent. The Democratic poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 8.14 percent.
Keenan found it interesting that 41 percent of the voters polled identified themselves as independents, indicating they're frustrated with party politics and partisanship.
“I'm independent,” he said. “They don't want to be associated with one side or the other. That plays well with me. I'm a Republican candidate, but I had the independence and the guts to file against a long-standing incumbent.
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