Democrats will decide which of two leading candidates they want to put up against the near-certain Republican nominee, embattled U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns. Although Democrats have a crowded five-man field in Tuesday's primary, a tight race is expected between John Morrison and Jon Tester.
Burns, the three-term incumbent who has been under stiff Democratic attack for months for his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, is the heavy favorite in the four-way Republican primary.
Will Democrats nominate John Morrison, the twice-elected state auditor and Helena attorney? Morrison is running on his leadership in expanding health-insurance coverage in Montana and fighting securities and insurance fraud.
However, Morrison has come under criticism for how his office handled a securities fraud case against a Flathead Valley businessman, David Tacke, who later married a woman with whom Morrison had an extramarital affair before his election as auditor. Morrison insists his office handled the case properly.
Or will they choose Jon Tester, the Big Sandy farmer and state Senate president who has made his flat-top haircut a campaign theme. Tester is telling voters he provided the legislative leadership to pass a progressive agenda on health care, energy and education issues last year.
Tester started out as the underdog, but has gained momentum in recent weeks by saying he's the only Democrat who can stand up to Burns on the ethics issue. That's Tester's code for saying Morrison can't challenge Burns on the ethics issue because of the affair and how his office handled the Tacke case.
Also in the Democratic primary are former state Rep. Paul Richards of Boulder, the peace candidate who last week threw his support to Tester; Ken Marcure, the Missoula resident who has lived for most of the past 30 years in Japan where he teaches; or Bob Candee, the Richey farmer best known for bankrolling college scholarship funds for local students.
On the Republican side, Burns, a former county commissioner, auctioneer and agricultural broadcaster, is campaigning that his 17-plus years of seniority have let him do more for Montana than any senator in history. He is a political survivor who held on for a narrow re-election victory over then-unknown Brian Schweitzer in 2000.
Burns' campaign slogan is “Delivering for Montana.” It's a reference to the fact that he has secured more than $2 billion in federal funds for Montana from his perch on the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Burns must first get by state Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan, the Bigfork restaurant owner.
Also running in the Republican primary are perennial candidate Bob Kelleher, a Butte attorney and advocate of a parliamentary form of government, and Daniel Lloyd Neste Huffman, a Great Falls bingo caller and car salesman who wants to double the minimum wage.
Keenan has suggested Burns will be a wounded candidate in the fall because of his Abramoff links and could lose the seat to a Democrat. The state lawmaker said he has none of that baggage and will run better against the Democratic nominee. A fiscal conservative in the state Legislature, Keenan has criticized congressional Republicans and President Bush for being fiscally irresponsible.
National newspapers, citing anonymous sources, have said Burns is under U.S. Justice Department investigation in the Abramoff influence-peddling scandal. Burns has denied any wrongdoing.
“Ethics is going to be a huge issue,” said Craig Wilson, a political science professor at Montana State University-Billings and a longtime observer of state politics. “The fate of the Burns campaign could rest on what, if anything, comes out of the Justice Department. If there are any indictments of Burns' staff, it could hurt real bad, but if there's nothing new in a couple of months, that could be old news and be less harmful.”
On the Democratic side, Wilson said ethics remains an issue with Morrison.
“The ethics issue is going to play less well for Morrison against Burns than for Tester,” Wilson said. “Tester is much better placed than Morrison.”
Wilson predicts a nasty general election campaign no matter which Democrat is nominated.
“As soon as this primary is over, I don't think they're ever going to put the gloves on,” he said. “It's going to be pretty much bare knuckles into November. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination is going to come out swinging at Burns, and Burns is going to return it in spades.”
Wilson wondered about the possibility of some Republicans crossing over and grabbing a Democratic ticket on Tuesday to vote for Morrison.
“People love to talk about it (cross-over voting) but it's hard to figure out,” he said. Often a hot local primary race for sheriff keeps people voting their own party ticket.
The Democratic primary figures to be close. Some political observers say a low primary turnout favors Tester, with Morrison benefiting if more people vote.
A Lee Newspapers poll taken May 22-24 by Mason Dixon Polling & Research Inc. showed Morrison at 42 percent to Tester's 41 percent, with 14 percent undecided, and the other three Democrats dividing up the remainder.
Burns topped Keenan in the Republican poll by a 66 to 18 percent lead, with 13 percent undecided, and the other two candidates splitting the remainder. Both primary polls had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.
In the final days of the primary campaign, the major candidates are crisscrossing the states for votes.
“I'm just duking it out the last week,” Morrison said. “I think we're winning, but we're just keeping our focus.”
Morrison said he was proud to receive the endorsement of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. He's informing seniors and aging baby boomers about the group's backing.
“As I travel around the state and talk to people, the great majority of them are supporting our campaign,” he said. “We have our advertisements on television and radio, and we're reaching out to individual voters through volunteers, through literature door to door, and phone calls.”
“We want to round first base with a lot of momentum,” Morrison added.
Tester, too, was optimistic.
“I think it's going pretty darned well,” Tester said. “We've got momentum. It's definitely swung our way. We don't have the money of our opponent, but we certainly have the grass-roots.”
He was buoyed that some former Morrison backers, including ex-U.S. Sen. John Melcher, now endorse him and that Richards urged his supporters to vote for Tester.
“Folks understand that ethics is going to play a big part in the race,” Tester said. “The biggest decision is who can beat Conrad Burns in the fall. I hear about this on a daily basis. They want honesty from their elected officials. Folks think I'm the most electable person that can come out of this primary.”
On the Republican side, Burns was also feeling good.
“We kind of like where we are,” he said. “It's been good working hard and going down the road. Prepare for the worst but hope for the best.”
Although some pundits have said Burns needs to win 70 or 80 percent of the primary vote or appear vulnerable, Burns said he's just working hard to get his message out.
“We just think we've got to tell the Republican story,” he said. “I'm going to continue to do that and (talk about) my agenda and what I plan to do in the future.”
Burns has no preference for which Democrat he's likely to face in the fall.
“It makes no difference to me,” he said. “Both of them have their points, and, of course, we'll just take on what's out there, and that's what's great about America.”
Keenan, meanwhile, said he's counting on the kind of quiet support he garnered in the campaign. Some people wearing Burns stickers approached Keenan after GOP dinners to tell him they privately support him.
“So many things have gone against me that have energized people for me,” he said.
Keenan said a number of Republicans are upset the state GOP endorsed Burns instead of being neutral in the primary. They are also “saddened and sometimes embarrassed” that although Keenan was a legitimate candidate, he often received only a few minutes to speak at Republican functions, while Burns talked for as long as he wanted.
“I thought it was important that Conrad Burns have a legitimate primary opponent to judge his strength,” Keenan said. “I think in some people's minds, I became too legitimate and a threat to the status quo, but that's nothing new.”
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