In fact, the dry crackle of summer has sucked the moisture right out of Kirkendall's forest, leaving logs with a water content of just 12 percent or so.
A kiln-dried piece of lumber compares at about 8 percent.
Kirkendall can't say when or if the next forest fire will come, can't pinpoint where the next flash of lightning might strike, where a smoldering cigarette butt might land.
Nor can he predict when the wind will blow, or when weather might turn again to wet.
But he can tell you how dry it is today, thanks to that log out there in the woods.
When it comes to measuring the dry and the potential for wildfire, folk in Kirkendall's line of work like to talk about one-hour fuels (grasses), 10-hour fuels (quarter-inch-diameter sticks), and 100-hour fuels (up to 3 inches).
But the real measure are those 1,000-hour fuels, bigger than 3 inches around - big enough that it would take about 1,000 hours for a change in relative humidity to cause a change in the moisture content of the stick.
It is a telling measure, he said, of how hot his fire season could become.
The lower it goes, the greater the potential. When moisture content dips below 15 percent, that 1,000-hour log will be entirely consumed to white ash during a fire.
And his log's at 12.
That's not good; it's about as bad as it was in 2000, when summer skies in west-central Montana were choked with smoke and the Bitterroot National Forest was on fire.
“We definitely are tracking at or about the level we were in the year 2000,” said Colleen Finneman. She works at the Northern Rockies Coordination Center in Missoula, an arm of the National Interagency Fire Center.
“But,” she added, “we haven't reached the levels of 2003 yet. That's not to say we won't, but we're not there yet.”
In 2003, fires burned hot in and around Glacier National Park. In 2003, Kirkendall's stick had a moisture content of about 4 or 5 percent.
“People like to use 2000 and 2003 as the benchmark years, because they're still easily remembered,” Finneman said.
When making comparisons, fire bosses also like to use something called an ERC. That's the landscape's “energy release component,” another measure of wildfire potential.
The higher the ERC, the higher the potential. To determine the number, scientists plug in a number of variables, including temperature, precipitation and the amount of water in those dead sticks.
By the time the ERC hits 50, the forest is on the line between “very high” and “extreme” fire conditions. Today, Kirkendall's measurements put it at about 60. Down in the Big Hole, it's topping 70.
That's right in line with where it was in 2000, but still a ways short of the 2003 high mark.
And, fortunately, things only get better as you go north.
Way up north, up on the Kootenai National Forest, the ERC is hovering in the lower 50s - dry (the average for this time of year is about 40), but not as dry as the low 60s experienced back in 2000.
And in the upper Flathead, around Glacier National Park, the ERC is about 51, again in line with 2000, and again far above the average of 35 or so.
Even in those places, Kirkendall said, “the smaller plants aren't even growing anymore. There's just no moisture.”
Still he said, “it's not necessarily unusual for us to be at this point at this time of year. It's actually fairly typical.”
And this summer, he said, there's one very big difference.
“This year we had a very good snowpack” he said. “The north slopes are considerably greener than they were in 2000.”
When fires hit those north slopes - which he says “are still acting as a heat sink” - the blazes “are slowing down considerably, and not burning with the intensity we saw in 2000.”
Also, Kirkendall said, there appears to be a lot more moisture up high (above 6,500 feet) than there was in 2000, with upper elevation fires “just sitting there.”
And there's more good news. Lightning hasn't struck.
By this time in 2000, firefighters had responded to more than 100 blazes on the Bitterroot forest. This year, they've fought fewer than 40.
“In 2000, we were fighting fires between snowbanks at 6,000 feet in June,” Kirkendall said. “We haven't experienced anything like that this year.”
“Our number of fire starts is way, way down” agreed Steve Zachry, deputy fire management officer on the Lolo National Forest. “It's probably 50 percent of the historic average.”
And like Kirkendall, Zachry is noticing his north slopes “are very green, especially in the upper elevations.”
Even though the ERC on the Lolo is at a record-breaking 69 - with 1,000-hour fuels at maybe 10 percent moisture content - “we feel very comfortable right now, because our west and north slopes still have lots of green.”
Move north, and it's only greener - at least for now.
The Northern Rockies Coordination Center's moisture map shows northwest Montana still tinged green, west-central Montana parched yellow, the Bitterroot burnt brown.
Up on the Flathead National Forest, Denise German said much of the woods are actually wetter than in 2000, “except at the south end of the forest, down near Condon.”
But up north, she said, “we're doing OK” - better, anyway, than the lower-elevation state lands that are scattered throughout the Flathead's river bottoms. Better than the Bitterroot.
“The Bitterroot's definitely a lot drier,” German said, “but that's not at all unusual for late July.”
Yet everyone knows, as Finneman said, that “it's only going to get drier across the entire region.”
Sure, Zachry has his green, calls himself “comfortable;” but even he admits that “how long that will hold on, I don't know.”
“We're into a protracted drying period here,” Kirkendall said. “One winter of average moisture does not make up for years and years of drought conditions.”
And even though temperatures are supposed to drop back to “normal” by next week, that still means dry highs in the upper 80s, with nary a rain cloud in sight.
Kirkendall's neck of the woods is bound to get drier before it gets wetter, and he'll be very lucky to keep more moisture in his trees than in a kiln-dried 2-by-4.
“That's just the time of year,” he said. “We live in a very dry region, and this is a very dry year.”
Beyond that observation, the fire manager wisely offers no predictions, other than the most obvious:
“This could be an extremely busy month coming up for us.”
|
 |
 |
Add your comment now! Write your comment in the form below.
(Email address is for verification only. If you'd like to email a story, look for the link above)