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HELENA - By a slim margin, more Montanans say they're likely to vote for Republicans in races for state legislative seats this November, a Lee Newspapers poll says.

But the difference is within the poll's margin of error, so the proportion of voters favoring Republicans or Democrats is considered a statistical dead heat: Forty-five percent of those polled said they prefer Republican candidates for the state House, while 42 percent chose Democrats.

The remaining 13 percent said they were unsure.

The small spread more or less reflects the narrow split of the current Montana Legislature, where Democrats enjoy a 27-23 advantage in the Senate and the House is divided 50-50 between the two parties.

This year, another close, hard-fought battle is expected for political control of the 2007 Legislature.

The poll, conducted for Lee Newspapers by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C., surveyed 625 registered Montana voters last week. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

It asked respondents if the 2006 election were held now, would they be more likely to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate in their local legislative race for the Montana House. All 100 House seats are up for grabs this year, along with half of the 50 Senate seats.

The Lee Newspapers poll has asked this same question going back to 1995. In Lee polls this year, the percentage of voters preferring Republican legislative candidates has been higher, but by very thin margins, ranging from 1 to 5 percentage points.

But a wider margin isn't always an indicator of electoral success. In October 2004, 47 percent of those polled said they preferred Republicans in legislative races and only 35 percent said they preferred Democrats.

In the 2004 general election several weeks later, Democrats won control of the Montana Senate for the first time in 10 years and forged the current tie in the House, where they'd been in the minority since 1993.

Last week's poll also revealed some differences between men and women and so-called “independents,” when it came to stating a preference on legislative candidates this election.

Men were more likely to choose Republicans, with 49 percent saying they would vote for the Republican candidate and 39 percent saying they would vote Democratic.

Among women, 45 percent said they would vote for Democratic legislative candidates this year, while 41 percent chose Republicans.

Nearly all of those polled who identified themselves as Democrats or Republicans said they'd be sticking with legislative candidates from their chosen party this year.

But among those who called themselves “independents,” 44 percent said they preferred Democratic candidates and 37 percent said they liked a Republican in the legislative races this year.

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