HELENA - Democratic challenger Jon Tester and Republican Sen. Conrad Burns are now running about even in Montana's fiercely contested U.S. Senate race, a new statewide poll shows.
The latest poll shows Tester with
Because Tester's 3 percentage point lead falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, that means Tester and Burns are considered to be running “about even,” according to Associated Press polling guidelines.
This poll of 625 likely Montana voters was taken Oct. 17-19 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C., for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC.
A Lee Newspapers poll taken Sept. 26-28 by the same pollster showed Tester with 47 percent, Burns with 40 percent and 10 percent undecided. Jones had 3 percent. The September poll of 625 likely Montana voters also had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
“It's tightened up a little bit,” said pollster Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. “Burns has a history of closing strong. It at least puts it back on the radar screen a little bit.”
McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC are sharing their current Montana poll, also done by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, with Lee Newspapers. Lee, in turn, gave these two news organizations the Montana Senate poll results in its late-September poll and will do so again for its final poll, planned shortly before the Nov. 7 election.
The MSNBC-McClatchy poll from last week also read the names of Tester and Burns and asked likely voters if they had a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of the candidates.
It found Burns' positive score rising slightly, while Tester's dropped, compared with the Lee poll, while Burns' negative score dropped slightly and Tester's rose.
In the October poll, Burns had 42 percent favorable name identification, 43 percent unfavorable and 15 percent neutral.
In the September poll, Burns had 36 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable and 18 percent neutral. One percent didn't recognize his name.
Tester, meanwhile, had 43 percent favorable name identification in October, 33 percent unfavorable and 24 percent neutral. In the September poll, Tester's favorable name identification was 48 percent, his unfavorable 26 percent and neutral 23 percent. Three percent didn't recognize his name.
The October poll also showed a deep divide between men and women, when it comes to their support for Tester and Burns.
Tester is running very strong among women, who favored Tester by a 53 percent to 34 percent margin. Conversely, Burns is running strong among men, who favored him by a 52 percent to 39 percent margin.
Last week's poll found that 71 percent of likely Montana voters said their vote for the Senate candidate would mainly be for their candidate, while 27 percent said it would mainly be against the other candidate, with 3 percent not sure.
Looking at the results deeper, of those saying they are voting mainly for their candidate, 53.4 percent were Burns backers and 46.6 percent Tester supporters. Of those saying they will mainly vote against a candidate, 65.5 percent were Tester supporters and 34.5 percent Burns backers.
Asked which one of eight issues would be most important in determining their vote in the Senate race, the war in Iraq topped the list at 26 percent, followed by terrorism and security at 14 percent.
Next was health care at
12 percent, taxes and government spending at 11 percent, economy and jobs tied with morals and family at 10 percent, immigration at 7 percent, other issues or “didn't know” at 6 percent, and gas prices and energy at 5 percent.
Among those who said the Iraq war is their most important issue, 65 percent said they are backing Tester, while only 28 percent were Burns supporters.
Burns, however, scored higher among those who said terrorism and security are their most important issues. Nearly 82 percent said they are for Burns, while only 11 percent chose Tester.
Tester also had a clear edge among the 30 percent of those polled who said they are “independents” rather than Democrats or Republicans, with 54 percent of this group choosing him and only 28 percent choosing Burns.
In terms of geography, Tester led among those polled in the Butte/Bozeman/Helena, Great Falls and Missoula/Kalispell areas, while Burns was leading among those polled in the Billings and eastern Montana areas.
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