Out-gunned by Democrats, who control the state Senate and governor's office, the slim majority of Republicans controlling the House of Representatives have sought mechanical advantage in moving the budget. They've fragmented the single, comprehensive bill typically used to enact a state budget into multiple - and multiplying - pieces of legislation in hopes of gaining greater leverage.
The idea may be to force Democrats to negotiate the budget piecemeal, rather than present, ultimately, the budget in all-or-nothing form. But the strategy is backfiring. No one's talking about budget specifics in Helena. It's all about the process - one bill or six or eight. The political theatrics likewise divert public attention. Whatever budget emerges, it promises to be the least scrutinized tax-and-spending package in modern history.
Republicans have indicated a desire to spend less and cut taxes more than Gov. Brian Schweitzer proposes in his comprehensive budget known as House Bill 2. Blessed with an unprecedented budget surplus, no one's talking budget cuts. Schweitzer's budget calls for increasing spending 22 percent over two years, while the Republicans propose an increase of 13 percent. Republicans say they want to hold the growth of government in check, but the best bet for doing so is to amend HB 2 to reduce or eliminate spending and reduce revenue collection - explaining and selling the changes to garner public support. Ultimately, the budget isn't going to be larger or smaller because some smart politician finds a way to finesse things. It's the people's budget - not the Democrats' or Republicans' - and whatever it contains will need to have public support. Otherwise, there will be hell to pay next election - if not before.
House Republicans shouldn't be so ready to abandon their powers of persuasion. They at least ought to test the governor's willingness to negotiate. Schweitzer has repeatedly stated he doesn't expect to get everything he wants and doesn't consider HB 2 to be carved in stone. “I'm not ready to die in the street for anything,” he says.
Rather than negotiate substance of the budget, he and the other state officials are busy arguing about form. As it is, the public may know that Republicans are talking about spending $100 million or so less than Schweitzer proposes, but not where or why. More important, the other $3.8 billion in annual spending is simply lost in the noise.
To pass all the bills that comprise their budget, the 50 GOP representatives need the support of the Constitution Party's Rick Jore, a principled conservative who opposes significant increases in spending. To win his support, they'll have to cut spending to levels that will give moderate Republicans pause. Cutting the budget is a winning pitch in some, but not all legislative districts. At some point, HB 2 may seem a prudent fallback to many Republicans - especially since Democrats control the Senate and since the governor threatens to veto multiple budget bills anyway. If 11 Republicans in the House crack, they and the 49 Democrats will make up the 60 votes needed to resurrect the now-tabled HB 2. Were that to happen, the rest of the Republicans would be relegated to observer status.
Of course, the longer all this drags out, the less actual time will be left in the legislative session to meaningfully scrutinize the budget, whatever form it ultimately assumes. What we get may be more surprise package than budget. Montanans who've been tuning out the budget fight will quickly start paying attention if they're surprised and disappointed by the inevitable real-world consequences of whatever is or isn't in the final budget. Angry voters may not be easy to appease with talk of grand legislative strategies.
The budget's structure isn't going to matter to most Montanans. The substance will. Focusing on the substance is likely to yield the best results. Better results make for better political strategy.
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