A recent analysis shows the region has the capacity to keep up with that enormous demand, at least for the next several summers, but that it might come at a hefty price.
The Northwest Power and Conservation Council recently completed a study showing adequate power supply over the coming five years, despite ever-higher summer temperatures. The study also suggested that meeting the need for electricity over those years “may not always be inexpensive.”
Those efforts, council members said, will need to continue if the Pacific Northwest is to enjoy affordable power into the future.
The region's power surplus - projected to last at least through 2012 - exists largely in the private wholesale marketplace, where prices can be wildly volatile. Short-term spikes, during times of high demand, could cause prices to escalate dramatically as companies seek to meet customer needs with higher and higher bids.
“The assessment,” said council chairman Tom Karier, “provides a high assurance that the Northwest will avoid blackouts due to an inadequate overall power supply for the next three to five years. This is good news, but it does not ensure that the region will avoid periods of high prices, nor does it ensure that individual utilities have control over enough electricity through contracts with power suppliers or from their own power plants to meet their customers' needs.”
A solution, Karrier suggested, is for utilities and consumers alike to undertake “aggressive efforts” to conserve energy, thus reducing the need for expensive new power plants, the cost of which would be passed on to ratepayers. In addition, he said, utilities should be looking to renewable resources, which in times of high prices compete well against traditional coal or gas-fired plants.
Utilities also should look to the mix of power they sell, Karrier said, carefully balancing the steady energy bought through fixed-price, long-term contracts and the “emergency” power purchased on demand in the private marketplace.
“This,” he said, “will minimize expenditures over time and also minimize environmental risks, such as the risk of increased emissions from older, dirtier power plants that run mainly when demand for power peaks.”
The recent study indicates regional energy surplus ranges at about 4,000 average megawatts, more than enough to power three cities the size of Seattle. But because much of that surplus is controlled by independent power producers who sell on the wholesale market, the full amount may not always be available to regional utilities.
Power to the people
Check out predictions for regional availability and cost of electricity at www.nwcouncil.org
Reporter Michael Jamison can be reached at 1-800-366-7186 or at mjamison@missoulian.com
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