Looking at the number of building permits granted over the last five years, and information collected by the city's study of obstacles to affordable housing, local planners predict 15,000 new homes in Missoula by 2027. And that's a conservative estimate.
The addition of that many new single-family homes will force Missoula's outer edges to balloon by 12.5 square miles, increasing the city's size by 50 percent.
But city and county officials hope to avoid the word that, in many planning circles, has joined the family of four-letter words - even if it does have six.
Sprawl.
Local planners have recently started looking at the “big-picture” approach to impacts of growth on public safety and health and neighborhood identity. The group will draft amendments to the Missoula County Growth Policy, a growth compass of sorts. It was a document first adopted in 1968, then updated periodically.
Millar hopes the proposed amendments to the growth policy can be complete by spring. But more changes to the plan, and further discussions about growth, will likely be a continuous process.
It's always difficult to discuss long-range planning while scrambling to stay afloat on day-to-day issues, Millar said. That's one reason these questions haven't yet been addressed.
“Getting beyond what is day-to-day and getting in front of it is what this is all about,” he said. “We've been reacting, and we need to get out in front of growth.”
Or maybe it's because this is one of those topics everyone would rather not confront.
“This will be contentious in some areas,” Millar said, “and who wants to go looking for a fight?”
Each week, the city of Missoula annexes new land, causing confusion among emergency responders, said Bob Reid, director of the county's disaster and emergency services. Subdivisions that sheriff's deputies responded to yesterday could be the responsibility of the city police force tomorrow, he said.
One possibility is annexing only several times a year, Reid said. That would allow everyone to get on the same page about where the boundaries are and who covers what, he said.
County horticulturist Helen Atthowe worries because agricultural land keeps getting gobbled up by growth and development. That means the food we eat comes from farther and farther away, she said.
But what if all the growth didn't happen along the urban fringe?
There are few places inside the city limits that provide enough space for multiple single-family homes anymore, Millar said. Missoula is bursting at the seams in that respect. So, developers are building in the green fields in the urban fringe.
One option is encouraging a mix of housing products such as condos and townhomes, Millar said. That could prevent Missoula from encroaching as quickly on Frenchtown and Lolo.
Millar foresees a potential struggle when it comes to defining what is considered “the country.”
Where sewer lines are extended to outlying areas, local planners intend to allow developers to pack more homes into subdivisions. That means areas many Montanans for considered “the country” will now be the city.
“The lack of discussion now is resulting in something that isn't country,” Millar said during a meeting with the county commissioners last week.
“It's sprawl,” added Commissioner Bill Carey.
“Yeah,” Millar replied.
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