If all the complexities can be worked out, by next autumn Montanans could go to a local bar and place a quinella wager on, say, quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on a given NFL Sunday.
At some point in the future, they might bet a win ticket on Tiger Woods in a PGA tournament and Jeff Gordon in a NASCAR race - all on the same weekly “race” program.
“What makes it exciting is, this type of fantasy betting nobody else does,” said Tucker, manager of Montana Simulcast Partners and a longtime promoter of horse racing in the state.
Tucker, from Billings, was in town at the behest of the county commission and chief administrative officer Ann Mary Dussault. They needed someone to explain how legislation passed last year in Helena might figure into the future of the Western Montana Fair and fairgrounds.
They got it - a full two hours' worth - from Tucker, with help from local horseman Dale Mahlum and Bill Nooney, a longtime fair and racing booster. Mahlum, a former state legislator, chaired a 2006 task force appointed by Gov. Brian Schweitzer to address the decline of the horse racing industry.
The county is in discussion with California businessman Eric Spector and Oneida Capital LLC about the possibility of running live and simulcast horse racing at the fairgrounds.
“We're struggling with the issues and we're hoping you can at least help us understand what the options are,” Dussault told Tucker.
Tucker sketched the rise and tailing off in Montana of simulcast racing, which allows betting on faraway horse, greyhound and harness racing at licensed bars in the state.
It was launched in conjunction with the Montana Board of Horse Racing in the late 1980s to funnel needed dollars into live horse tracks. Skyrocketing costs and other circumstances, including a proliferation of illegal Internet gambling, have combined to squeeze the simulcast revenues the last few years, Tucker said.
With Schweitzer's backing, the 2007 Legislature passed two bills to help racing, both to be regulated by the Board of Racing. Both also directly benefit only those locales which offer live horse racing. At present, Missoula is not one of those.
The first, advance deposit wagering, legalizes and controls Internet and telephone pari-mutuel wagering. It allows Montanans to set up accounts with out-of-state racing venues such as Churchill Downs in Kentucky and bet on races there.
Mahlum said the governor's task force, which pushed both bills in the Legislature, estimated advance deposit wagering would bring in $150,000 to $200,000 a year, to be divided up among the active tracks in Montana based on the number of racing dates at each.
But it's the other bill, setting up the framework for the pioneering fantasy sports pari-mutuel wagering, that has Tucker and others most excited.
“To me it has by far the most potential because it's going on right now,” Tucker said. “All we're going to try to do is bring it into a statewide pool, so when people play fantasy sports they can play it on a statewide basis.”
Because no other state has legalized the pari-mutuel form of fantasy sports, Montana has to create its own rules - a complicated process that has taken some five months.
All possible scenarios, such as football injuries, must be imagined when the rules are written, Tucker said.
“You don't want to wait for the day you have a pool of $800,000 and something just horrible happens and you're going, ‘What do we do know?' ” he said.
He said the 32 pages of rules he brought to the meeting should be finalized soon. Then they'll go through a six- to eight-week approval process, after which companies interested in distributing the equipment must be licensed.
“Maybe I'm optimistic, but I'd like to see us do a little testing this summer on baseball,” Tucker said, “and then hopefully be up this coming fall for football.”
Missoula County won't realize at least the initial fruits of either advanced deposit wagering or fantasy sports wagering. Dussault said she received a request for more information from Oneida before Christmas, and expects a proposal from the company soon.
“My guess is, and I think Eric thinks this too, is if were successful in negotiating an agreement, it would not mean any live racing this coming year,” she said.
Racing cost Missoula County an estimated $100,000 a year over the last 10 years it was held, Dussault told Tucker.
If it were to be revived, and received that much from the new legislation, “that would make up our annual loss,” she said. “Will it grow to $500,000 a year, do you think, honestly?”
“Yes,” Tucker replied.
There have been much larger figures thrown around in Helena, “and I think we're just guessing at those types of things,” he said. “But look at what has happened with fantasy sports in the last few years. I would think a year from now we'll have a pretty good idea where we're going to be.”
There are other considerations for the county, pointed out Roger Millar, director of the Office of Planning and Grants.
“If we're going to do something that will attract even more people into bars in Missoula, is this thing going to generate enough money to take care of the increase of police and sheriff patrols and social services - the aspects of it that are the downside of the industry?” Millar wondered.
Tucker said the unknowns of pari-mutuel fantasy sports have people jumpy - the newness of it, the scope, the current progress.
“There's a lot of nervous people, but believe me there's a lot of people looking forward and hoping something comes out of it,” he said.
“What would you say the odds are it'll be successful?” asked a skeptical Dussault.
“If I were a betting man,” Tucker said to laughter, “I would say 90 to 95 percent. I think it has amazing potential.”
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