We couldn't help but think about those predictions as we watched the lumber industry continue to struggle through tough times, beset by a cadre of challenges ranging from the rise in imported wood products to the nation's faltering housing market.
And now that Stimson has announced it is shutting down the mill indefinitely, we suppose we could look back and say this moment has been long in coming. But it doesn't bring much comfort.
Stimson's top officials have said they plan to keep a handful of employees to keep watch over the place, but the other 100 or so workers will have to find something else to do - and they have only the next two months to figure out what that something will be.
According to Mike Woodworth, the business manager for the mill's union, some of those workers will immediately apply for other jobs - although very few will bother applying at another lumber mill. Some of the older workers, especially, just hope to find gainful employment for a few more years until they reach retirement age and begin collecting their pensions.
News that the mill will soon close “has been terribly hard on the older workers,” Woodworth told the Missoulian this week. “They're struggling but they're trying to do the best they can.
“I would highly recommend any of them to an employer,” he added. “They all know how to give an honest day's work.”
Some of them, as well as most of the younger workers, he said, will take advantage of retraining assistance that's been secured thanks to the swift work of Montana's congressional delegates. Even though the economy has slowed, the unemployment rate in Montana is still low and employers are looking hard for new workers. While a lot of the jobs currently up for grabs don't pay nearly as well as jobs in the timber industry, others do. In fact some, such as those in the health care and construction industries, pay better.
“The plywood people we lost in '07 are doing great,” Woodworth reported. “A lot of them are still in school. They're working hard and diligently at their new trades and professions. And more, they're quite pleased with the support from the community.”
But Bonner is probably going to need some support of its own. Former Stimson workers who find jobs elsewhere will probably move away, taking their families and their incomes with them. Their absence will take a toll on the school, as well as some of the local businesses.
So it's probably be going to be tough sledding in Bonner for a while. But we think that, given a little time, the community will bounce back, and indeed, prove its resiliency by thriving. It may never be a timber town again - but neither will it ever be a ghost town.
The Bonner-Milltown area has continue to see more people moving in, even as Stimson laid off more workers. It's true that enrollment at Bonner Elementary has been declining, and will probably decline more after the last Stimson employees clock out, but that's less a function of population loss than it is an indication of changing demographics. After all, school districts across western Montana are reporting decreasing numbers of students, despite the fact that they are located in one of the most fastest-growing regions in the country.
And who knows what might happen if Scott Cooney, a developer from Missoula, gets his wish and buys the rest of the mill site? He's already purchased a good chunk of it, including 133 acres and 46 company houses. And once the Milltown Dam project is complete?
Still, no matter how bright the light at the end of the tunnel, times of transition are always tough. We hope the people who live and work in Bonner know the rest of Missoula is pulling for them. We can't thank them enough for being so supportive of the laid-off Stimson employees over all these years. We want them to know they have our support, too.
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