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HAMILTON - So far, Montana's economy is bucking a national downward trend.

Paul Polzin thinks Ravalli County will likely follow suit.

The director of the University of Montana's Bureau of Business and Economic Research offered his economic forecasts to about 50 people Tuesday night at a function sponsored by the Bitterroot Chamber of Commerce.

While the U.S. economy is edging toward recession or may already be there, Polzin said, Montana's economy is riding a wave of high commodity prices, robust construction and continued moderate growth in nonresident travel.

“Montana's economic base is now firing on almost all cylinders, and the state is completing a record-breaking streak of four straight years of greater than 4 percent real growth,” said an information packet distributed by Polzin.

That trend is likely to continue for some time, barring any unforeseen bumps along the way.

“We're forecasting 4 percent real growth for almost as far as the eye can see,” Polzin said. “Almost every basic industry in Montana is doing well right now.”

The state has escaped unscathed the troubles currently facing the nation overall, he said.

While Montana as a whole ranks 42nd in the nation in foreclosure rates, Polzin said some of the more urban counties - and one very rural county - report foreclosure numbers nearer to those seen in Seattle; Boise, Idaho; and the Interstate 5 corridor.

“There are a number of Montana counties that are at the national average,” Polzin said. “They may not be as red on the map as places like Las Vegas, but they're not escaping it either.”

Ravalli, Flathead and Fergus counties were among those facing higher foreclosure rates, he said.

Montanans are also seeing the value in their homes drop, but not as much as other places in the country.

“In the western part of the state, we too had a price bubble and we too are decelerating in price, although the deceleration is perhaps not as great as some neighboring states,” Polzin said.

In this region, Polzin said, the Missoula home market probably had the largest price bubble.

Ravalli County, whose population grew from 25,000 in 1990 to 41,000 in 2006, is unique in that the largest component of its economic base is the commuters who work in Missoula and live across the county line.

The income that Ravalli County residents earn in Missoula and bring back home amounts to 46 percent of the total labor income derived from the county's basic industries.

It's more than wood products, federal government, agriculture and medical research combined.

“There's no other county in Montana where this even comes close,” Polzin said.

Despite the fact population growth has slowed since the prime home sites on the northern edge of the county were occupied, economic growth in the county has outpaced that of the state as a whole, Polzin said.

“The outmigration from Missoula County to Ravalli County has slowed,” he said. “Commuters have been a major cause of economic growth here.”

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