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Underdogs like Paul help shape the race - Monday, April 21, 2008

Missoula is in the thick of presidential campaign politics this year. We've had visits from Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and today we're welcoming Republican candidate Ron Paul.

That's right, Ron Paul is still in the game. Despite the fact that Arizona Sen. John McCain has already secured more than enough delegate votes to win his party's nomination at the Republican National Convention in a few months, Texas congressman Ron Paul has pledged not to bow out before the convention.

And why should he? Just because he has almost no chance of winning the nomination doesn't mean he should stop campaigning.

While underdog candidates don't usually win in big elections, they can still have an enormous impact on their outcomes. That fact was apparent in the 2000 presidential elections, in which third-party candidate Ralph Nader carved out a relatively small percentage of the popular vote in a tight race between the Democratic and Republican nominees.

Long-shot candidates force mainstream candidates to talk about issues they may want to avoid. They give voters a wider range of choices, which typically encourages more voters - and especially swing voters - to show up at the polls. And increased voter turnout has a significant impact on local and state elections.

Paul's campaign estimates he has more than 800,000 people firmly behind him, and we have to assume a good portion of them are Missoulians. After all, Missoula County voters made Paul their first choice in the Republican caucus held on Super Tuesday. McCain was given third place, behind Mitt Romney.

Even in the statewide election, Republican caucus voters said they preferred Paul to McCain. And now that McCain is the presumptive party nominee, their preference should still be allowed to influence the presidential race.

Montana voters aren't easily pigeonholed. We tend to vote as independently as we live - meaning we don't always vote the party line.

If people in Montana feel strongly about Paul's message, they are more likely to bring their views to the election booth with them this year, and more likely to cast a vote for candidates who offer a similar message. For supporters of Ron Paul, that means advocating for gun rights, pushing for smaller government and, especially, taking an unequivocal stance on ending the Iraq war.

Paul will bring his message to Missoula at 7:30 p.m. tonight in the University of Montana's University Center Ballroom. We expect he will be welcomed as heartily as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and as warmly as we will welcome John McCain when he, too, comes to campaign in Missoula.


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