“So much so that people won't cancel vacations or recreation just because the price goes up a little bit.”
So said Racene Friede, executive director of the Glacier Country tourism center, one of six official tourism regions under the Big Sky.
In fact, Montana may compete better than ever as a tourism destination as the country's disposable income continues to shrink.
In 2006, when gasoline was pushing $3 per gallon, lots of analysts were wringing their hands, worrying the tourists might not come. Glacier Country businesses even offered up $50 gas cards for nonresidents staying in hotels here.
But in the end, it all seemed like much ado about nothing. The tourists came, gas crunch or no. Just as they did in 2002, when a spike in energy prices caused concerns, and in 2005, when gas hit - gasp! - $2 a gallon. Analysts worried then, too, but that same year recreational travel hit a six-year high nationwide.
“People don't give up on their vacations,” Friede said. “Instead, they change the way they spend; they get back to basics.”
Basics like a tent, perhaps, which is good news for places like Montana in general, and Glacier National Park in particular. It's tough to track - there are countless variables to account for - but the argument has been made that high gas prices can actually be good for outdoors and national park destinations.
“It certainly makes a lot of sense to me,” said Sarah Lawlor, spokeswoman for Travel Montana. “Our national parks are a pretty darn affordable way to go when times are tight.”
If people are spending more household income on gas, then they might look at other ways to cut vacation costs. “They might decide this isn't the best time to take that trip to Disney,” Lawlor said - where entrance fees alone can run a family hundreds of dollars per day.
By contrast, an entire family can get into Glacier Park for $25 a week. That family can camp for about $20 per night. Those kinds of prices are attractive, Friede agreed, for those looking to “change the way they spend” rather than forego a vacation entirely.
Additionally, the national economy is sluggish, airline ticket prices are up, wages are lagging behind food and gas and insurance costs, and the U.S. dollar is weak against world currencies. It is not, economically speaking, a good time to travel overseas.
“Actually, it's ridiculously expensive to travel outside the country right now,” Friede said.
It is, however, a good time for foreigners to travel to the States, where their money will buy more. Canadians, for instance, have rediscovered Montana and are coming south by the busloads, eager to spend where their money buys them more.
It doesn't hurt, of course, that in Canada a gallon of gas runs about $4.35. It feels expensive here, but gas at $3.50 a gallon is still a bargain for most of the world.
“We've had high gas prices for the last several years, but people keep traveling,” said Kara Grau, research associate with the Tourism Industry Association. “It makes sense that you might see more foreign travelers, and that more travelers in general might look for cheaper places to vacation.”
That's good news for Montana, where 10 million annual travelers make the tourism business a $4-billion-a-year enterprise.
Currently, gas prices in destination locations such as Whitefish and West Glacier are right on par with state averages - and, in fact, are lower than in towns such as Missoula, according to the gas trackers at www.montanagasprices.com.
Eastern Montana towns - Plentywood, Glendive and Sidney, for instance - have the most expensive gas in the state, in the $3.60 to $3.65 range. Billings is cheapest, at just under $3.50, and the state as a whole is averaging $3.55, well below the national average of $3.62.
Forecasters have predicted $4 gas by midsummer, but tourism analysts insist that will not deter vacationers, especially national park travelers.
“A hundred bucks more for an entire trip, it just doesn't add up to making the decision not to vacation,” Lawlor said. “And Montana in general is a lot more affordable than most places.”
She quoted a recent AAA study that Montana is ninth among all 50 states in terms of affordability for travelers.
It helps, too, that Glacier Park is on the Amtrak line, as train travel is increasingly affordable relative to making the drive. Package deals mean vacationers can ride the rails from Seattle to Whitefish, stay two nights and get breakfast to boot, all for $360.
“Bookings are strong,” Lawlor said. “We're hearing that people are feeling pretty comfortable about this summer.”
Recent years have seen steady 2 percent annual increases in the number of visitors to Montana, and the Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research - located on the University of Montana campus in Missoula - predicts that could increase to as much as 3 percent this year.
“Even when crude oil prices closed in on the $100/barrel mark in 2007,” researchers concluded, “Americans were still traveling,” adding that Montana airports saw a 3.4 percent increase in 2007.
Friede doesn't expect her Glacier Country will issue any gas cards for travelers this year, despite increasing fuel costs, as the impact of the promotional effort in 2006 remains questionable at best. And she also wonders how much effect national efforts might have, including proposals put forward by the nation's presidential hopefuls.
A few weeks back, candidate John McCain proposed a summertime vacation from the national gasoline tax, to ease pain at the pump. Hillary Clinton jumped on, but insisted the lost revenue should be paid by oil companies and their record profits.
Barack Obama, however, has said such moves are political gimmicks, distractions from real solutions, and would save people no more than pennies per day.
Friede agrees, saying: “I'm just not a believer that something like that would impact us at all. We're already seeing very strong numbers - just as strong, or even better, than last year, and last year was a great year.”
Last year, like this year, increasing fuel prices were in the news.
The reality, though, is that soaring prices are not without precedent. Gas prices from the early 1980s, when adjusted for inflation, were about $3.15 per gallon in today's money.
“We've seen high prices before,” Friede said, “and we'll see them again. But people continue to take vacations.”
Indeed. Glacier Park visitation was up 6 percent last summer - to well over
2 million travelers - despite $3 gasoline and weeks of wildfires.
The main difference, Grau said, is that gas is eating up a greater portion of vacation spending. In 2002, she said, 21 percent of vacation spending went to gasoline. Now, it's 28 percent.
“But that just makes Montana's affordable national park vacations more attractive,” Lawlor said. “For many vacationers, Montana may be the answer to cutting costs.”
“It makes sense,” Grau agreed. “Some people will have to change the kind of vacation they're going to take, and choosing to tent camp certainly reduces costs.”
She admitted forecasting is tricky at best, and some people might choose to shorten their stay, or travel closer to home, “but one thing we do know is they will not give up their vacations or their recreation. For most people, that's not an option.”
Reporter Michael Jamison can be reached at 1-800-366-7186 or at mjamison@missoulian.com.
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