Forty-three percent of those polled said they were more likely to vote for a Republican for the statehouse, while only 37 percent said they were more likely to vote for a Democrat. Twenty percent said they weren't sure.
Montanans have reported a preference for Republicans in the Legislature since the fall of 1998, polls show. In 2001, that margin swelled to
Last December, Republicans led Democrats by a slim 2 percentage points. In the latest poll, conducted from May 19 through May 21, Republicans expanded their lead to 6 percentage points.
Montanans have not reported such a strong preference for statehouse Republicans since October of 2004.
The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., of Washington, D.C., for Lee Newspapers of Montana. The poll queried 625 registered Montana voters selected from across the state to represent the population density. It has a margin of error of plus or minus
4 percentage points.
Men were more likely to declare a Republican preference than women. Forty-six percent of men said would vote for a Republican for the Legislature, compared with just 40 percent of women.
People who identified as independents showed a slight preference for Republicans. Some 29 percent of independents said they'd vote Republican for the statehouse, compared with 25 percent who said they'd vote for a Democrat. Almost half of all independents - 46 percent - said they weren't sure who they'd vote for.
The Montana results come as Republicans nationally are facing potentially tough elections in November,
with an unpopular war, an unsteady economy and GOP President Bush garnering low approval ratings.
All 100 seats in the Montana House are up for grabs every two years. Republicans now hold a razor-thin 50-49 edge over Democrats, with one Constitution Party member.
In the 50-member Senate, half of the seats are up for grabs. Senate terms run for four years. Democrats hold a narrow 26-24 lead over Republicans in 2007 after a Republican switched parties.
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