Yet a sizeable chunk of voters - 23 percent - are undecided in a race that hasn't had much publicity.
The poll last week asked Montanans who they'd support in a matchup between Rehberg and Hunt, if the election were held now. Fifty-two percent said they'd vote for Rehberg, a Republican, while only 20 percent said they'd choose Hunt. Five percent said they would vote for Libertarian Mike Fellows of Missoula.
Hunt has been running the most active, visible campaign. Voters will choose the Democratic nominee in the June 3 primary election.
While Rehberg is a solid favorite to win re-election, his 52 percent number is relatively low for an incumbent without a well-known challenger, said Brad Coker, managing director for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C.
“That probably reflects a backlash against Republicans (nationwide),” Coker said. “Republicans are a little nervous. As they say, the Republican brand right now is suffering.”
Mason-Dixon conducted the poll for Lee Newspapers, surveying 625 registered Montana voters by telephone from May 19-21. The respondents were chosen at random from across the state. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Hunt, who's never run for office before, began broadcasting his first television ads 10 days ago. However, 61 percent of those polled by Lee Newspapers did not recognize his name.
Eleven percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable impression of Hunt, while 25 percent said they had a neutral impression.
Coker said he expects Hunt will start closing the 32 percent gap once voters get to know him and realize he's the Democratic opponent to Rehberg.
“It's a name-ID gap,” Coker said. “Of the people who recognize (Hunt), half of the people are voting for him. I think (Rehberg) wins, but this might not be his biggest margin he'll ever post.”
Rehberg's name was recognized by all but 2 percent of the people surveyed, and 55 percent said they had a favorable impression, versus only 18 percent with a negative impression.
Rehberg also enjoyed a 56 percent approval rating for his job performance.
The poll showed equally strong support for Rehberg among men and women, at around 50 percent, while only 45 percent of independents said they would vote for him. Thirty percent of independents said they are undecided and 16 percent favored Hunt.
Among those who consider themselves Democrats, 22 percent said they would vote for Rehberg and 48 percent chose Hunt. No Republicans said they would vote for Hunt.
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