Three. Five. Oh.
That's an important number for a Missoula nonprofit called GlobalWarmingSolution.Org.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is somewhere around 385 parts per million - and climbing like the thermostat. According to the membership network, it needs to be pushed down to 350 ppm at the most.
That's low compared with the 450 ppm maximum touted by many conservation groups as a fine place to level off, but the nonprofit's number is apparently OK with the Garden City.
“In Missoula, there seems to be this critical mass of people that are willing to support this very aggressive vision,” said executive director David Merrill.
On Saturday, GlobalWarmingSolution.Org premieres a film about making that vision reality. It's based on the organization's white paper, “Rosie Revisited: A U.S.-Led Solution to Global Warming.”
“Rosie” advocates that a huge amount of global greenhouse gas emissions be chopped down fast to throttle back the CO2 content to 350 ppm. That's an emissions cut of 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2025.
According to “Rosie,” the United States needs to lead the pack, and sleepy policymakers need to wake up and act - if not yesterday, now at the latest. The paper calls for mobilizing the grass roots to blast the stalled suits in Congress into action. The white paper, available on the Web site, also shows the way.
Merrill said one big reason to act now is that an event some scientists warn could lead to catastrophe looks to be under way. Scientists have thought Arctic floor permafrost blocked methane from shooting into the atmosphere.
And that was a good thing. Methane warms the earth 23 times more than carbon dioxide does, according to a “research highlight” posted on the International Arctic Research Center Web site.
But that permafrost seal looks to have a leak. According to scientists Igor Semiletov and Natalia Shakhova, field work in the East Siberian Sea shows “sub-bottom permafrost in this region is not as stable as it was once considered.”
Shakhova commented in an April story in Spiegel Online, the Web version of the German weekly magazine Der Spiegel, saying methane is passing into the atmosphere and the finding “is a wake-up call for science.”
Merrill wants such findings to be a wake-up call for grassroots support, too. Personal efforts to conserve help, he said, but D.C. is where it counts, and pushing politicians takes muscle.
“When it's a question of survival and preserving a home for our children, I think that ultimately people will get that message,” Merrill said.
Already, many have. GlobalWarmingSolution.Org has a membership of 35 organizations representing 320 groups nationwide. Its home, the Jeannette Rankin Peace Center, is among them, as is the Montana Environmental Information Center.
The leader of an Illinois group purchased a copy of the film and plans multiple showings. Bill Bailey, co-chairman of Slow Global Warming-Elgin, also plans a meeting with the staff of presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama.
Educator and scientist Steve Nelson researched and wrote “Rosie” at no cost, and at the paper's heart is the call by leading climatologist James Hansen to knock down atmospheric CO2 to a maximum of 350 ppm.
Even Hansen isn't insulated from criticism, though, and some can't stomach the unequivocal nature of his message.
Mark Herlong, program director with the George C. Marshall Institute, said even Hansen's philosophical allies consider him “a fairly political animal.”
“We don't agree with most of his positions,” Herlong said. The Marshall Insitute questions the premise of climate change.
Joseph Romm, a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress who offers praise for Hansen, also questions some of his research. In a blog post, Romm calls for stabilizing below 450 ppm “while climate scientists figure out if in fact we need to ultimately get below 350.”
Steve Running, a University of Montana professor who shared in the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize as a member of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, said scientists don't like to venture guesses because those guesses become official targets.
“There's no single magic number at all, and the politicians keep asking us scientists for a number,” Running said.
He described Hansen as the most prominent climate change scientist on earth. The point Hansen is making, he said, is that impacts already have started, and to stop them, the clock needs to roll back.
Running has been out of the country and has not reviewed “Rosie.” However, he finds the current amount of CO2 in the atmosphere alarming - and particularly the fact that emissions are going up faster than Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change computer models projected.
“So we're digging our grave deeper quicker than even IPCC thought possible five years ago,” Running said.
“Rosie” proposes to cut emissions with “a 15-year wartime-speed energy transition.” The U.S. relies mostly - 85 percent - on fossil fuels, according to the proposal. It calls for cutting that to 15 percent by 2025.
Conservation and renewable energy would fill the gaps of a new portfolio. Conservation would account for 18 percent. Wind would make up 20 percent. Solar voltaic would fill 13 percent and solar thermal would make up 9 percent. Biomass would account for 10 percent.
“There are competing proposals out there much more prominent than ours that advocate a much more incremental approach, and one of their central arguments is we can't afford this,” Merrill said.
That's when Rosie comes in, as Rosie the Riveter helped invigorate the nation during World War II. According to “Climate Code Red,” the U.S. “increased its military expenditure from 1 percent of national income in 1939 to
31 percent to 42 percent in 1942 to 1944.”
Still, some people cannot afford the energy bill they already get. NorthWestern Energy spokeswoman Claudia Rapkoch said some customers will pay more for green energy, but others can't.
Energy companies need a variety of sources, she said. They must buy at competitive prices and ensure they can deliver the product.
If the product needs to be green, companies need green, too. She said NorthWestern needed tax credits to make wind energy a good deal for consumers.
“That's how we were able to bring Judith Gap on board,” Rapkoch said.
Judith Gap is the seat of Montana's first large-scale wind farm, and a recent report shows how even green energy poses environmental challenges. Turbines there are killing more birds and bats at the farm than expected.
All the same, in 2006, GlobalWarmingSolution.Org celebrated a milestone. A scientist and an energy analyst said it was a savvy path the document puts forth.
According to the Web site, Donald Aitken, senior consulting scientist for the Union of Concerned Scientists, said this: “The remarkable work by GlobalWarmingSolution.org, Rosie Revisited, ranks right up with the energy transition and energy vision works by eminent researchers worldwide.”
Charles Hall, professor and energy analyst with State University of New York said the document was unique in its comprehensiveness, according to the same site: “Is it technically feasible? I think so. Is it economically feasible? That depends on how you define it. Š How much does it cost to leave a world your grandchildren can live in?”
Cool off
GlobalWarming Solution.Org shows its new film at 7 p.m. Saturday in the Crystal Theater, 515 S. Higgins Ave. The film is based on the nonprofit's proposal, “Rosie Revisited: A U.S.-Led Solution to Global Warming.”
GlobalWarmingSolution.Org advocates using existing technology to cut global greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2025. Celebrate the premiere with food, drink and live music from “street cellist” Brandon Smith. Tickets are $7 and proceeds go to GlobalWarmingSolution.Org.
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