This 30-second spot by Gov. Brian Schweitzer's re-election campaign began running last week on Montana TV stations and cable TV. It was produced by Murphy Putnam Media of Alexandria, Va.
Ad content: Opens with a shot of a ranch with rolling green hills. Schweitzer is standing behind a fence, talking, while Bohlinger is standing in front of the fence.
Bohlinger: “And I'm John Bohlinger.”
Schweitzer: “Four years ago, when I chose John, a Republican, to be my lieutenant governor, I took some heat from a few Democrats.”
Bohlinger: “And I know some Republicans who weren't very happy either.”
Schweitzer: “But working across party lines was more important to us. We've created the largest budget surplus and the most tax relief in state history, we've helped create over 50,000 new jobs, and our economy is one of the fastest growing in the country. Did I leave anything out?”
Bohlinger: “Just that you couldn't have done it without me.”
Analysis: The TV spot repeats many of the claims Schweitzer has made in speeches around the state in recent years. Schweitzer cites figures to back up his claims, while the campaign of his Republican opponent, Roy Brown, provided statistics disputing some of the governor's claims.
To a large extent, it depends on which set of statistics you believe, and your philosophy.
The 2007 Legislature did open with the largest projected general-fund surplus in Montana history - $1 billion. Whether Schweitzer and Bohlinger “created” this surplus is debatable.
Republicans contend they made the tough decisions during a 2003 economic downturn to reduce state spending increases and lower taxes, when Republican Judy Martz was governor, and that these steps set the stage for the Montana economy to flourish later.
Democrats acknowledge they inherited a surplus in 2005, but contend it expanded greatly through Schweitzer's management and his efforts to expand businesses, especially energy-related ones.
Schweitzer's claim that he and Bohlinger provided the “most tax relief in state history” is accurate in terms of money returned to individual taxpayers. The 2007 Legislature approved Schweitzer's $95.7 million plan to issue $400-per-household property-tax rebates to Montana homeowners. This topped the $21.5 million in income-tax rebates passed under Republican Gov. Marc Racicot in 1995 and the $29.6 million in reduced property taxes proposed by Democratic Gov. Thomas L. Judge and approved by voters in 1978.
Brown's campaign disputes Schweitzer's claims that he gave the most back, citing a Legislative Fiscal Division report of $232 million in tax cuts enacted by the Republican-led 1999 Legislature and signed by Racicot. Businesses wound up with most of the tax cuts, including a $92.8 million savings by lowering the property tax on business equipment from 6 percent to 3 percent.
Schweitzer's campaign later countered with the administration's own report showing that he and the 2007 Legislature authorized even more in total tax reductions in 2007 - $258.8 million.
As for Schweitzer's claims that his administration has “helped create over 50,000 jobs,” the governor cites the state Labor Department's “current economic statistics” that show the number of employed Montanans rose from 400,800 when he took office in January 2005 to 459,500 through June 2008.
Brown's campaign uses numbers from the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics that put the increase at 23,436 over the same period. His statistics show that Montana employment increased from 461,099 in January 2005 to 484,535 in June 2008.
It appears each campaign grabbed the economic statistics it believes best prove its point.
Schweitzer's campaign says it uses the state Labor Department statistics because they are the most current monthly figures, while Brown used the federal Bureau of Labor statistics. Both are the same numbers, the state Labor Department said, but the federal numbers, unlike the state's, are considered preliminary until a year after they are published.
As for the claims that Montana's economy “is one of the fastest growing in the country,” Schweitzer's campaign points to U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis statistics citing the 3.5 percent growth in Montana's gross domestic product, or GDP, from 2006 to 2007. It ranked sixth highest nationally.
Brown's campaign countered with a June 2008 Bureau of Economic Analysis report that said Montana real GDP ranked 47th nationally in 2007. It's important to look at the size of Montana's GDP, not just the growth, the campaign said. With Montana's low overall GDP, the state tends to have a strong percentage increase in GDP, even as its actual economic growth often lags behind other states, Brown's campaign said.
There's no question Montana's economy has grown. The debate is over how much, with each side finding statistics favorable to its position.
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