As a bellwether state in presidential races go, Montana's track record isn't bad.
Since Montana became a state in 1889, its citizens have cast votes in 29 presidential elections, starting in 1892. The national winner for president has carried Montana in 23 of the 29 elections, or 79 percent of the time.
Nevertheless, what do past Montana results show about our state's tendencies, with the caveat that past performance is no indication of future returns?
Looking at the accompanying table, you can see why we're called a “red” or Republican state in presidential races. We've voted for the Republican presidential nominees 18 times and the Democrats 11 times.
“Montanans are certainly more Republican in presidential contests than in other statewide races,” said Jim Lopach, political science professor at the University of Montana.
Added Craig Wilson, political science professor at Montana State University-Billings, “Montana tends to be a bellwether state in presidential elections.” Montana has voted for more Republicans for president for the past 40 years, but most of them also have won nationally, he said.
Since 1948, Montanans have only gone Democratic, or “blue,” in three presidential elections.
Montanans joined the nation in voting in 1948 to retain President Harry Truman and in 1964 to keep President Lyndon Johnson.
In 1992, we helped elect Bill Clinton president and unseat President George H.W. Bush. A major factor here was the third-party candidacy of Ross Perot, who grabbed 26 percent of Montana's votes, mostly siphoning them from Bush.
But you can also look at the table and see a long blue streak.
In five of the most important elections of the 20th century, from the Great Depression through World War II and afterward, Democrats won all five presidential elections from 1932 to 1948, both here and nationally. Franklin Roosevelt won the first four and Truman took the final one.
“You can see that the GOP has tended to dominate the presidential races in Montana except for the string of Democratic wins from 1932 through 1948,” said Jerry Calvert, a Montana State University political science professor.
What other conclusions can we draw from Montana's historic returns?
For one, Montanans have never been shy about voting for third-party candidates. In 1924, the Progressive Party ticket headed by Robert LaFollette of Wisconsin, with Montana U.S. Sen. Burton K. Wheeler as his running mate, captured 35 percent here to finish second - ahead of the Democratic team.
Likewise, in 1912, former President Theodore Roosevelt, running on the Progressive Party, placed second in Montana, with Republican President Robert Taft in third.
Montana voters gave Socialist Eugene V. Debs 9 percent of the vote in 1904 and 1908, Alabama Gov. George Wallace 7 percent in 1968 and Independent John Anderson 8 percent in 1980.
The president's race in Montana features Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr, Independent Ralph Nader and Constitution Party nominee Ron Paul on the ballot.
What do these political scientists see happening in Montana on Nov. 4 in the presidential race?
Lopach said Montana's votes for losing presidential Republican candidates Richard Nixon in 1960, President Gerald Ford in 1976 and Bob Dole in 1996 seems to have tarnished the state's previous reputation as a bellwether “to a rusty red.”
“Barr isn't Perot, and McCain isn't Goldwater, so if the past is prelude to the future, it looks like McCain in Montana in 2008,” he predicted.
Calvert said, “My take is that Obama has a very slim chance in Montana.”
However, Calvert cited several factors that should help Obama, including the economy, with the building and real estate industry “really going down” in places like Gallatin County.
In Montana, Obama has a strong presence on the ground (grass-roots organizing) and in the air (television advertising), Calvert said, while McCain appears to have neither.
“Ron Paul's presence on the ballot is a big if,” Calvert said. “The stronger his percentage, the better for Obama.”
Paul, a Republican congressman from Texas, finished second, with 25 percent of the vote, behind Mitt Romney and ahead of McCain in the Montana Republican Party's closed caucus in February.
Last month, the Constitution Party of Montana chose Paul as its presidential candidate.
Calvert said Obama will benefit from what he called McCain's “misjudgments,” such as his negative, personal attacks on Obama and his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.
“So on election night, I'd be looking at the western growth counties and the hard-core Democratic counties and see how the race is going and then finally Yellowstone County,” he said.
MSU-Billings' Wilson also pointed to Obama's strong campaign in Montana, with his five separate visits to the state and his heavy advertising buys and more than 40 paid staff here.
“I wondered if McCain's just abandoned the state in terms of his advertising,” Wilson said. “He's been MIA in Montana. The Republican Party told him, ‘Don't come here. Go elsewhere. Think about coming later.' ”
With Montana having just two-thirds of 1 percent of the total electoral votes, Wilson said McCain now has to campaign where the votes are.
“He took us for granted,” Wilson said. “It stuck in some people's craw. The head of the ticket couldn't even stop by in a red state to say howdy. What we got was Sarah Palin's plane landing in Billings for gas.”
Although Obama has the momentum going for him in Montana, Wilson stopped short of making any prediction for the presidential race here. But he said Obama probably will win nationally.
Chuck Johnson is chief of the Missoulian State Bureau in Helena. He can be reached at (800) 525-4920 or (406) 443-4920. His e-mail address is chuck.johnson@lee.net.
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