The buildup to the Griz-Cat game is already full of fun and intrigue, but the upcoming Football Championship Subdivision playoffs add the extra spice that make this the best sports week of the year in western Montana.
Specifically, we're talking about the selection process that decides the who and where for 16 FCS teams.
While the Griz will have their hands full preparing for the Cats, fans can sit back and ponder the future a bit ... so let's get to it.
For the sake of this column, we're going to assume a Montana win Saturday. Not that MSU doesn't have a decent shot, but we've got better things to do than worry about bulletin board material.
The top items on that list of things to do are trying to figure out a) where the Griz will be slotted and b) who they will be playing.
The short answer to the first question is ... UM won't be among the top four seeds, which can guarantee at least two home games.
Personally, I think Montana should get the fourth seed behind James Madison, Appalachian State and Weber State, in that order. But I'd be surprised if that happened.
Weber State (9-2) is currently ranked No. 8 in the Sports Network poll and No. 7 in the Gridiron Power Index - too low for where they actually belong.
Assuming Weber beats Eastern Washington, both of WSU's losses came to FBS teams Hawaii and unbeaten Utah, currently ranked No. 7 in the nation.
If the roles were reversed, Griz fans would be apoplectic if UM beat Weber by 17 points, went undefeated in the Big Sky Conference and ended up ranked below its league rival in the playoffs.
I just don't think it would be fair not to give the Wildcats one of the top four seeds, and from what I've read and heard from my colleagues around the FCS, Weber should get one of those coveted slots.
Giving WSU a seed obviously creates a dogfight for the final spot. Right now the leading contenders are Montana, Cal Poly, Northern Iowa and Villanova.
Cal Poly could simplify things by winning its final game of the season at Wisconsin. A second win over an FBS team this season would likely lock up the fourth seed for the 8-1 Mustangs, who earlier beat San Diego State.
Don't be surprised if Cal Poly gives them a scare in Madison, but let's assume the Mustangs lose. And using the same rule we applied to Weber State, it wouldn't seem fair to rank Cal Poly ahead of UM, given the Grizzlies' head-to-head victory.
Northern Iowa is more difficult. Seeding the Panthers fourth would create a nicely spaced grouping of top four teams around the country, and the committee does try to minimize travel and cost in as many first-round games as possible.
Northern Iowa is fourth in the Sports Network poll but just ninth in the GPI, and it will finish second in the Gateway Conference if Southern Illinois wins its final game of the season.
The Panthers' two losses this season were to Southern Illinois and BYU.
That brings us down to Villanova (8-2) and Montana (10-1).
On the surface, it would seem to be a close choice in favor of Montana.
The Griz and Wildcats are both runners-up in strong conferences, and both have one loss to their respective league champions. Villanova lost on a Hail Mary to top-ranked James Madison, while its other defeat was to West Virginia.
Montana is currently No. 3 in the GPI and No. 5 in the Sports Network poll. Villanova is No. 5 in the GPI, No. 6 in the Sports Network.
But two things are working against the Griz in my view.
First of all, I have a feeling the committee is going to favor a centrally located team like Northern Iowa, or the supposedly stronger Colonial Athletic Conference - with six teams currently ranked - over the Big Sky.
Secondly, UM simply hasn't been very impressive in wins over Portland State and winless Idaho State down the stretch.
I'd like to believe the 10-1 record, the big road victory over Cal Poly, and the prospect of at least two well-attended playoff games in Missoula would be enough to sway the 10-member committee, but I'm not all that confident.
Montana athletic director Jim O'Day will be a first-year member of the committee, which may help UM some, but O'Day will be limited in what he can do.
A big upset this weekend could obviously throw things into turmoil, but right now I think the top four seeds will be James Madison, Appalachian State, Weber State and Northern Iowa.
Now, who will Montana play?
This used to be somewhat easier to answer.
Almost every year it seemed that UM got a first-round look at either a Gateway or a Southland team.
Then the committee sent Wofford, out of the Southern Conference, here last season.
After conferring with Jon Kasper at the Big Sky Conference office, here's what I think is going on.
The committee tries to set up as many bus trips in the first round as possible. But considering Montana is so far off the beaten path for most FCS teams, it makes sense to send one of the teams that has to charter a plane anyway to Missoula.
That means we could get anybody in the first round - other than Weber. And that's kind of scary.
Why? Well, teams are supposedly no longer ranked below those top four seeds, so the Griz could end up having to face a powerhouse like Cal Poly in the first round - simply because both teams are from the West.
Quite frankly, that would be horribly unfair to both teams, considering both are highly ranked going into the playoffs.
Since we're in the habit of assuming things for this week's column, let's assume the committee will be more fair than that.
Nobody in the playoffs is going to be easy, but at 10-1 the Griz should get to play a team currently ranked in the bottom eight of those 16 teams.
So, my choice for the first-round game in Missoula is ... Maine.
The No. 17 Black Bears (8-3) host No. 11 New Hampshire (8-2) on Saturday in a battle for the Colonial Athletic North Division title. The loser is likely out of the playoffs. Should Maine win, it makes them a nice fit for Montana.
Or it could be Elon. Or William & Mary. Or none of the above.
We'll find out Sunday.
Columnist John Smithers can be reached at 523-5257 or at jsmithers@missoulian.com.
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Jon wrote on Nov 19, 2008 9:18 AM: