As far as they know, however, it won't be any colder or snowier than usual, whatever that is.
Dan Zumpfe, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Missoula, clicked on the Web site of the government's Climate Prediction Center the other day and surmised, “It looks like for December through February they're calling for temperatures most likely near normal and precipitation most likely near normal.”
Near normal!?
What kind of alarmist talk is that? How in the name of Pacific Decadal Oscillations will that sell newspapers?
We need woolly worms. We need squirrel cache studies. We need ...
Caleb Weatherbee.
“Numb's the word,” Caleb is telling the world about the winter of 2008-09. Weatherbee, a recluse with a pseudonym, has used a secret formula to predict long-range weather, two years in advance, for the Farmers' Almanac since 1818. By now, he must be getting it down to a science.
Of our neck of the woods, Weatherbee says the winter will be marked by icy temperatures and decent snowfall over the next few months.
Then there's the more staid and widely read Old Farmer's Almanac, which got a good quarter-century's head start on all the Caleb Weatherbees. The banner across the top of the 2009 edition of the traditional yellow paperback trumpets, “Cold, Snow, Hurricanes Blow - Global Cooling?”
Now that'll catch your eye.
Inside, on page 220 to be precise, the Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts the following for the intermountain region: “Winter will be much colder and drier than normal, on average, with snowfall above normal in the north and below normal in the south.”
We in western Montana are, of course, in the north. Our lumped-together southern neighbors who will be experiencing the same general winter weather include Reno, Nev.; Grand Junction, Colo.; and the Grand Canyon. Try as you might, you won't find winter forecasts for, say, the Yaak compared with those of the Bitterroot Valley.
As much as we all supposedly fret over the weather, western Montanans tend to take winter as it comes - or leave for Arizona. There'll be snow at some point, not enough for some and too much for others. It'll get cold, but nothing like yesteryear.
“I can't predict anything,” said rancher John Conn, who has lived his 81 years on the same ranch south of Hall. “We haven't had a bad winter for 10 years, and I don't care to have any more of them.”
Watch nature's signals, some say.
It'll be a hard winter if leaves fall late, if anthills are high, if cornhusks are thick and tight, if apple skins are tough, if the feathers grow low on a partridge's leg.
Some feel there's a correlation between a big berry crop and a hard winter on the way, noted Arnie Olsen, who is executive director of the Montana Natural History Center in Missoula.
“I've heard all kinds of things, like how big the cache of a squirrel is,” Olsen said. “Animals do seem to have a sense, but it doesn't always work.”
We've had such a mild fall, he explained, it's no wonder if the wild animals are in better shape right now to face the rigors of a winter, be it harsh or mellow.
But are they notably fat right now?
“There's nothing that would indicate anything to me,” said John Peterson, who's at the peak of busy right now processing game at H&H Meats in Missoula.
Woolly worms are said to know for sure what's coming come winter.
They're those black caterpillars with reddish brown bands around their midsections that grow up to be a nondescript brand of tiger moth. They are a sort of winter's version of Punxsutawney Phil, the spring-predicting groundhog, and are especially celebrated in western North Carolina, home each October to the Woolly Worm Festival. You can sign up now for next year's Woolly Worm Woad Wace at www.woollyworm.com.
Folklore says the blacker the woolly worm, the longer the coming winter.
In a weird way, there's some validity to it, according to Amy Bartlett Wright, who 10 years ago published the “Peterson First Guide to Caterpillars of North America.”
As the worm matures, its reddish band grows, Wright wrote. “Wetter weather lengthens the black bands. So while not a reliable measure, it makes some sense that onset of an early and thus longer winter will force younger and less red caterpillars into hibernation.”
In practice, the woolly worm is a fail-proof predictor here in Montana this time of year. Start searching for one now and by the time you find it next spring, you'll know precisely what kind of winter we've had.
It's worth noting that last year's Old Farmer's Almanac called for a slightly warmer than average winter with less than the usual precipitation. That came out before La Nina had her say.
“We had a pretty strong La Nina that started in July and ended this past June,” said Don Potts, state climatologist and chairman of the department of forest management at the University of Montana.
La Nina, Potts reminded, is the cause of colder and wetter winters.
“That's what gave us a pretty good snowpack up in the mountains and saved our britches,” he said.
Climatologists are currently considering the possibility we're at the advent of a queen-sized version of La Nina, the so-called Pacific Decadal Oscillation. While La Ninas and their warmer and drier counterparts, El Ninos, generally last six to 18 months and can occur every three to seven years, a PDO phase can linger for two or three decades.
Another La Nina episode might indicate that's what we're in for, Potts said. “It builds up slowly. It doesn't just happen overnight. But that's a pretty good indication we could have some cold or snow.”
The most recent PDO started in the late 1950s and lasted through the 1970s, which is probably what older generations remember most clearly when they refer to the hard winters of olden days. That's why, in an article written by Joseph D'Aleo, the Old Farmer's Almanac raises the specter of global cooling.
Science, yes, but it's inexact at best.
“It's very difficult to predict weather past seven days, so it's really a science that has yet to be defined,” said Zumpfe, the Missoula meteorologist.
“Sometimes you see evidence and signs of certain things - large food crops or prey bases that indicate animals are going to be better prepared for a hard winter,” said Olsen, the wildlife biologist from the Montana Natural History Center.
“If there is a bad winter you look back and say that must have been it, but if there isn't you tend not to look back. You ignore that data.”
Peterson has a method of winter prognosticating that most of us can identify with. When he's done stuffing deer sausage and wrapping elk and antelope chops at his meat market on South Avenue, he'll try to remember to charge up the battery to his old Ford diesel that he keeps rigged with a snowplow. He'll back the truck into his shed at home, ready for whatever December and January have to offer.
Usually when he does that, he said, there's hardly any weather at all. But when he forgets - look out, Montana. Here comes winter.
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Fred Garvin wrote on Nov 30, 2008 2:25 AM: