An analysis conducted in tandem with the Missoula Greater Downtown Master Plan raises the question of whether the city can sustain as much retail as it has planned. According to Missoula City Council members who attended a briefing on the report, the analyst concluded that Missoula had overprojected its capacity for retail.
“I think that's one of the reasons that the Master Plan consultants have taken a little different view of how the millsite might develop,” said Councilman Dave Strohmaier, referring to the Old Sawmill District south of the Clark Fork River.
Retail analyst Tom Moriarity, a principal with Economics Research Associates, could not be reached for comment. Lead planning firm Crandall Arambula, though, provided a draft copy of ERA's report, titled “Housing and Retail Market Demand Analysis.”
In the report, posted at www.missoularedtape.com, ERA estimates how much more retail space downtown can support. So far, downtown counts some 274,000 square feet of existing retail. Roughly half of that is in food service. At 40,000 square feet, Macy's accounts for about 15 percent of the retail downtown, the report says.
By 2012, though, Missoula's downtown will be able to sustain at least 355,000 square feet - and maybe as much as 408,000 square feet, according to the study. That means the city core could accommodate another 81,000 square feet of space - or as much as 134,000 square feet.
That would be like adding the space of another three Macy's stores, with room to spare.
The draft study is dated May 2008, but doesn't ignore the economic maelstrom that has ensued since. National retail sales in October tanked and “were the worst on record in decades,” the report says. The study projects the first two quarters of 2009 also will be difficult for small and chain retailers.
“This will delay the opportunity for retail recruitment, even in markets that have real opportunities for retail expansion (like downtown Missoula),” the report says. “The timetable will need to be re-thought and deferred.”
Even so, the study area includes the Old Sawmill District. And that district alone calls for some 150,000 square feet of commercial space, including office and retail, according to the Missoula Redevelopment Agency. The Sawmill District is slated to build out over a couple of decades. Still, the total commercial space planned there is more than the maximum amount of new retail all of downtown can support in the next few years, at 134,000 square feet, according to the report.
So consultants recommended scaling back some commercial and retail space there. The Millsite Revitalization Project's Kevin Mytty, though, said developers expect to proceed as planned when the economy turns around.
“We fully anticipate having a variety of commercial office and some neighborhood retail and a pretty big variety of different types of residential,” Mytty said.
So where will retail really go? Strohmaier said government can offer financial incentives through its urban renewal districts. Also, he said patrons help decide the future of businesses when they choose where to open their wallets. Mytty, though, said the decision rests mostly with business owners themselves.
Missoula Area Chamber of Commerce President and Chief Executive Officer Kim Latrielle said she doesn't want to see the city scale back plans for retail businesses. Rather, she said she wants Missoula to bring a new main attraction to town so the local economy can support all the retail it has planned.
“I believe with my whole heart that we need to figure out a way to get more people to Missoula, to bring new money to Missoula,” Latrielle said.
The Chamber represents businesses all over Missoula. Latrielle said retailers report that when football season ends, so does their season to earn good income. An exposition center could fill the gap and is on the table as part of the strategic planning efforts at the fairgrounds.
Ward 1 Councilman Strohmaier, though, points to the Master Plan itself as a force to guide the future of retail in Missoula. He said a well-articulated plan can help retailers decide where to locate and understand the investments the city would support.
“I think having a clear vision for downtown Missoula helps give both existing retailers and potential retailers some greater sense of security,” Strohmaier said.
Of course, not every retailer is pining to open a shop in the Master Plan's “retail hotspot,” roughly around Macy's and west on Main Street. At Tremper's, outside the Master Plan area, the Book Exchange is 30 years old and thriving. Owner Becky Haddad said the shop requires much more parking than downtown allows because customers need to haul their heavy boxes of used books into the store. Trying to haul them across the street isn't convenient. Also, she said the rent at Tremper's is affordable.
“So for us, the older strip malls are ideal,” Haddad said.
The bookstore is strong, too. The store started at 1,200 square feet and filled 3,600 square feet after a decade. Now, it's 11,000 square feet. Haddad said sales slipped only the year Reserve Street first opened (before Barnes and Noble arrived).
“That's the only year in 30 years that we were down,” she said.
Downtown, the down economy pressed a closure at Stoverud's jewelry shop. Coco Atelier, a clothing boutique, remains open, but its sister shoe store just shut its doors.
Owner Alice Marquardt said Rue closed because when the euro went up, shoes that were once $185 a pair went up to $325. And $185 already was high for Missoula. So Red Rooster, a home and kitchen store, is moving into the space.
For her, the main challenge of doing business isn't the lack of parking downtown - “we get a ton of walking traffic.” Rather, she said it's a lack of population.
“We just don't have a high volume of traffic,” Marquardt said.
She said she is grateful business didn't slip in 2008 and hopes April will bring its tourists - and a strengthened economy along with it.
“Nobody is looking for a great first quarter. But compared with other places around the country, we consider ourselves lucky,” Marquardt said.
Still, 2009 looks to be a year to hunker down. Missoula Downtown Association executive director Linda McCarthy said the downtown needs to focus not on growth this year but on holding existing retail steady. And the task sounds challenging.
“I think it's precarious,” McCarthy said.
On Missoulian.com
To read a draft of the “Housing and Retail Market Demand Analysis” for Missoula, go to MissoulaRedTape.com.
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janine wrote on Jan 11, 2009 10:49 AM:
" Downtown is charming and has problems that are not unique to any downtown area. Those businesses that support the Missoula demographic will survive. A store that expects Missoulians to pay $185 for shoes and $350 for a sweater will not survive in a town of low median income and a relative high cost of living. It's just business, market, and common sense. "
Wanda wrote on Jan 11, 2009 11:18 AM:
" The reason I hate shopping in Downtown Missoula is because it's hard to find a place to park. Adding insult to injury is having to feed a parking meter. When Missoula raised the cost of the parking meter I pretty much just stayed out. I can find just about everything I want at the box stores who all provide a free place to park. Think about it City of Missoula! "
Daniel wrote on Jan 11, 2009 12:24 PM:
" If you truly enjoy our downtown, then the best thing you can do is support it. If you need to buy something, take some time to check out the downtown area. The architecture is beautiful and there are tons of great places to get a bite. Each time you shop downtown, try a new place for a snack because the food is great. The stores in Missoula have such diverse offerings. When you shop local you support your own community which helps us all. Keep Missoula Downtown alive! "
growgrow wrote on Jan 11, 2009 1:25 PM:
" Who cares what these planners or anyone else says, the idea here is to spend money on 'growth' who cares if we need it or not, that's not the point. "Growth" is the industry, just spend money and build stuff, it really doesn't matter what they build, just spend money and build to sustain the economy, geez if you haven't caught on by now.
I mean really, do we need yet one more, coffee shop or resturant, or one more boutique selling $50 fish pillows. They just drive each other out of business with not enough business to go around. But who cares the point is to build build build - growth growth growth. "
I mean really, do we need yet one more, coffee shop or resturant, or one more boutique selling $50 fish pillows. They just drive each other out of business with not enough business to go around. But who cares the point is to build build build - growth growth growth. "
onemoretime wrote on Jan 11, 2009 1:36 PM:
" I say we create more growth - which means more stores, this way we can create more competition from the existing stores and drive them right out of business, like they aren't having enough trouble already. BUT who cares as long as we have GROWTH.
GROWTH it's the new religion, our new god, it will save all of use.
Borrow, spend, build, grow, repeat as necessary until you hit 2008 and it all blows up in your face, and then pay no attention to it, don't learn you lesson, just kneel down on your knees and pray to the growth god one more time for salvation to get you thru these tough and troubled times. And for your penance - Consume Consume Consume, "
GROWTH it's the new religion, our new god, it will save all of use.
Borrow, spend, build, grow, repeat as necessary until you hit 2008 and it all blows up in your face, and then pay no attention to it, don't learn you lesson, just kneel down on your knees and pray to the growth god one more time for salvation to get you thru these tough and troubled times. And for your penance - Consume Consume Consume, "
whoneedsit wrote on Jan 11, 2009 1:51 PM:
" I mean let's face it, what is there downtown for sale that anybody really needs ? Jewelry "I'll pass", taco "nah", $3 stale muffin "not that hungry", hippy beads "not my thing", OK I'm having trouble here thinking why I really need to go downtown, 'cept maybe the liquor store.
Which reminds me - I think the bums add character to the downtown, the tourist eat that stuff up, it let's them know we're people just like them, and we are perfectly capable of trashing up a place just as good as any filthy city back east. Besides, I like the contrast of a homeless bum sleeping in front of a clothing store for rich & famous(or wanna be), it's performance art at its best. And isn't that what Missoula is really all about. "
Which reminds me - I think the bums add character to the downtown, the tourist eat that stuff up, it let's them know we're people just like them, and we are perfectly capable of trashing up a place just as good as any filthy city back east. Besides, I like the contrast of a homeless bum sleeping in front of a clothing store for rich & famous(or wanna be), it's performance art at its best. And isn't that what Missoula is really all about. "
Todd wrote on Jan 11, 2009 4:12 PM:
" I agree with Janine. Missoula doesn't even pay its local residents enough to pay rent/save for a home, much less the disposable income for $185 shoes. As for the Poverello, that existed long before the swanky shops showed up, knowing where the Poverello existed. I don't hear the folks from the Poverello complaining about free parking. As for parking, if you can affort to spend money on jewelry, shoes and a $30 dinner but are complaining about $2 to park, perhaps your priorities are out of whack. Think about it. "
Raymond H Orcutt wrote on Jan 11, 2009 4:25 PM:
" The applied reasoning from all agles is very commendable, it is just a new generation of faster growing retailers based from larger corperations have found by using the 5 sences in the psychology of selling are able to meet the wants and needs of the people by offering products at a lower price and thee larger retailers meet the necessary criteia for the people shopping when it comes to needing food to lawn equip, clothing, entertainment, health care needs and on & on. I agree to meet the demands for the downtown area merchants, to keep money coming in from sales. Missoula needs something for people to want to come to missoula year round & for people to to sustain employemnt by working. We live in a information age and that is just going to continue to escilate. Missoula planners need to look at what it is that will draw more people year round. Our local business need something that will inspire people to come like flocks year round to increase local revenue & jobs where people will grow as our comunity does. & smile, a great person once said all a problem is, is an opportunity in disguise. "
Shaun wrote on Jan 11, 2009 4:50 PM:
" Without jobs in Missoula that pay a LIVABLE wage, what is the point? "
R. Ruana wrote on Jan 12, 2009 7:02 AM:
" I can tell your President of the Chamber how to get more people to Missoula. Treat outsiders better, especially people from California. We were born and raised in Missoula and when we come home to visit family, people yell obscenities at us or "Get the F out you GD Californians - the finger is also the most frequently used greeting just because you see a Calif. license plate. The claim is Californians ran up the price of real estate. The greedy Montanans put the price up when they saw outsiders coming in ie. Lambrose and others. The state and locals tax businesses outrageously. Some friends that went to Montana to start a business in Columbia Falls were blackballed by the community as outsiders and they had to close up and leave again. We have friends also here in Orangevale that grew up in Montana that refuse to go back even for a visit. Someway people up there have the idea they have a closed society that is the best in the world - WRONG! Missoula kept business at bay all the early years (40s & 50s)and they finally are finding out it isn't "The Last Best Place" That slogan irritates visitors that also think they live in wonderful places. Montana isn't the "Best Place in the World to live." We've travelled extensively since leaving Montana and believe me it isn't. It is time people realized it and treat their visitors with respect while you gladly take their money. "
howaboutit wrote on Jan 12, 2009 2:08 PM:
" The only reason we need lots of people to come to downtown is because there are a whole bunch of stores down there that don't need to be there. And now the town wants to put more stores there...? ? ?
here's how it goes...
1. move to montana
2. can't find job
3. start a useless business
4. try to grow commuity in hopes that bringing in more people will improve your business.
5. form downtown business promotion groups.
6. go out of business anyway
7. get a realestate liscene.
7. go completely bust
8. decide you can't eat the mountians and move back to where you came from. "
here's how it goes...
1. move to montana
2. can't find job
3. start a useless business
4. try to grow commuity in hopes that bringing in more people will improve your business.
5. form downtown business promotion groups.
6. go out of business anyway
7. get a realestate liscene.
7. go completely bust
8. decide you can't eat the mountians and move back to where you came from. "
Rob Rusignola wrote on Jan 13, 2009 12:11 PM:
" Two hours on a meter is not enough time to shop and eat lunch. If I have to move my car in two hours to avoid a ticket, then I am not going to drive around looking for a new spot I am going to leave and stop at a crappy drive thru food joint on my way home.Downtown only wants us to stop by quickly and leave our money there. Hello $50 fish pillow!! "
Phil wrote on Jan 11, 2009 8:06 AM: